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Chicago Fed Activity Index Falls in July

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged down to -0.08 in July 2026 from 0.06 in June, signaling a slight deterioration in US economic activity. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from June, and two categories made negative contributions in July. Production-related indicators contributed 0.01 points, down from 0.04 points in June, while the sales, orders and inventories category contributed 0.02 points, also easing from 0.04 points. Employment-related indicators improved to a negative 0.01-point contribution from negative 0.05 points in June. Meanwhile, the personal consumption and housing category weakened sharply, contributing negative 0.09 points after adding 0.04 points in June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.04 in July from +0.01 in June.

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