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Dow Jones futures bounce back as oil cools, though geopolitical risks persist

  • Dow Jones futures rise as falling oil prices eased immediate inflation concerns, despite ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
  • Rising energy costs fueled rate hike fears, with markets pricing in a 78.1% chance of a September Fed increase.
  • Disappointing big-tech earnings triggered a Wall Street selloff, pushing major indexes down sharply as investors reacted to weak results.

Dow Jones futures gain 0.35% to trade around 52,070 during European trading hours on Friday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures advance 0.21% and 0.08%, trading near 7,460 and 28,650, respectively.

US index futures rebounded as a drop in oil prices, following three days of gains, helped ease market fears over inflation and tighter Federal Reserve (Fed) policy. However, trader sentiment remains fragile due to escalating Middle East conflict. After Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militants attacked two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, the US launched its 13th straight night of retaliatory strikes against Iran. US President Donald Trump intensified warnings of unprecedented military action if hostilities persist, keeping crude supply risks high.

Persistent energy-driven inflation has reshaped monetary policy expectations. CME FedWatch data shows markets pricing in a 31.5% chance of a Fed rate hike this month and a 78.1% probability of at least a 25-basis-point increase in September.

The futures rally offers brief relief after a sharp selloff triggered by weak big-tech earnings. In Thursday’s US regular trading, the Dow Jones dropped 0.97%, while the S&P 500 (-1.2%) and Nasdaq (-2.2%) suffered their worst single-day drops since late June.

Tech heavyweights led the rout. Tesla plummeted nearly 15% on a Q2 earnings miss, its sharpest single-day loss since March 2025, while Alphabet shed 7% after hiking its full-year capital expenditure guidance. All major indexes remain on track for weekly losses, led by the Nasdaq.

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