The dollar fell more than 1.5% to below 97.3 this week, hovering near its lowest level since February 2022, driven by mounting expectations of Fed rate cuts. Chair Powell struck a notably dovish tone during recent congressional testimony, suggesting that in the absence of inflationary pressures from tariffs, the Fed would have continued its rate-cutting cycle. Reports also suggested that President Trump may announce his pick for the next Fed Chair as early as September or October, potentially creating a “shadow” leadership structure that could guide monetary policy in a more dovish direction. Meanwhile, US economic data showed personal consumption expenditures fell 0.3% in May, the sharpest drop this year. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE (excluding food and energy), rose 0.2%, slightly above forecasts. Also, final Michigan data showed consumer sentiment improved to a four-month high in June and inflation expectations fell.
