The main event today — and of the entire week — will be the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Ahead of the Fed announcement, markets will also see the Bank of Canada’s policy decision. Investors will additionally be watching earnings from key Big Tech companies after today’s US session closes.

Fed expectations:

• Markets are pricing in virtually no chance of a rate cut at today’s meeting — just 2.8% for a reduction.
• The first cut is now expected only in July. Markets also no longer see two cuts this year, in line with the dot plot presented in December.
• Given the current state of the economy, there is room for a hawkish hold, with no clear guidance on when the Fed might return to easing.

Amid ongoing geopolitical turbulence, Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference could prove especially important. The decision itself is fully priced in — the market narrative will largely depend on Powell’s tone. The Bank of Canada is also expected to keep rates unchanged at 2.25%.

Detailed calendar for the day:

• 02:45 PM GMT – BoC interest rate decision
• 03:30 PM GMT – BoC press conference
• 03:30 PM GMT – US DoE weekly crude oil inventories
• 07:00 PM GMT – Fed interest rate decision
• 07:30 PM GMT – Fed press conference
• After the US session – Microsoft, Tesla, Meta Platforms earnings

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