The primary factor shaping sentiment across global financial markets is a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Following mutual military strikes involving US and Iranian forces, the commodities market witnessed a surge in crude oil prices. Investors are closely monitoring the risk of further conflict escalation and its potential impact on energy supply routes. This situation coincides with high anticipation for the week’s key macroeconomic event – the evening release of the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting (FOMC Minutes). The market will scan the document for hawkish signals and guidance on the future path of interest rates, particularly in the context of high CPI inflation (4.2% YoY) and weaker labor market data for June. Elevated volatility is expected primarily across USD-related currency pairs, Wall Street equity indices, and crude oil futures.

Key Releases from the Asian Session

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.50%, returning to its monetary policy tightening cycle due to persistent inflation.
• The NZD/USD pair surged by nearly 2% in immediate response to the hawkish statement from the New Zealand central bank.
• The energy commodities market experienced a rapid rally in Brent and WTI crude oil prices following reports of a direct exchange of fire between US and Iranian forces.

Economic Calendar

• 16:00 USA – Wholesale Inventories MoM. Consensus: 0.3%. Previous reading: 0.3%
• 16:30 USA – EIA Crude Oil Inventories Change. Consensus: no data. Previous reading: -3.775M
• 16:30 USA – EIA Gasoline Inventories Change. Consensus: no data. Previous reading: -2.333M
• 20:00 USA – FOMC Minutes. Consensus: no data. Previous reading: no data

Corporate Earnings

• AZZ Inc. (before market open)
• Helen of Troy Ltd. (before market open)
• Levi Strauss & Co. (after market close)
• PriceSmart Inc. (after market close)

Markets to Watch

1. Crude Oil (WTI / Brent) – A direct flashpoint in commodity markets due to military escalation and the exchange of fire between the US and Iran in the Middle East, which is generating a high geopolitical risk premium.
2. Dollar Index (DXY) / EUR/USD – The major currency pair and the US dollar index will face heavy volatility pressures tonight in reaction to the FOMC minutes, which will define the market implied probability of subsequent US rate moves.
3. Wall Street (Main Indices) – The US stock market remains highly sensitive to hawkish or goveish undertones within the Fed minutes, particularly amid ongoing sector rotation and pressure within the technology space.

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