Economic Calendar: PayPal, Visa and Coca-Cola to overshadow macro data

The start of the week was dominated by news from the Middle East. However, focus is now likely to shift towards corporate earnings and central bank meetings.

• Upcoming reports include Microsoft and Meta (both Wednesday AMC), as well as Apple and Amazon (both Thursday AMC).
• In the meantime, interest rate decisions will be made by the Fed (Wednesday) and the BoE (Thursday).
• The week will conclude with the BoJ meeting (Thursday night into Friday), July inflation data from European countries (Thursday/Friday), and the June PCE inflation reading from the US (Thursday).
• We do not anticipate any changes in interest rates from any of the banks. All are expected, however, to maintain a hawkish rhetoric, guiding markets toward a hike at the subsequent meeting (which currently constitutes the base case scenario for each bank).

Today remains somewhat quieter.

• Prior to the market open, we await publications from PayPal, Coca-Cola, Boeing, UPS, Corning, S&P and Unilever.
• Following the close, quarterly reports will be released by Visa, Bloom Energy, Seagate, Waste Management, KLA and Ford.
• From our perspective, significant macroeconomic data points will be few. We will focus solely on the API report on crude oil inventory changes, scheduled for 9:30 PM.

🌏 Key macroeconomic publications

Monday

Germany

• Despite persistent uncertainty in the Persian Gulf region, the Ifo business climate index in Germany rose to 86.6, while business expectations climbed to 86.7. This improvement results not only from stronger demand but also from the resolution of key supply chain bottlenecks. The data is largely consistent with recent PMI indicators, which suggest a degree of economic recovery, particularly within the industrial sector. Conversely, no improvement was noted in the assessment of the current situation.

United States

• Durable goods orders increased by 0.3% month-on-month in June, considerably slower than the 2.5% anticipated. Markets had hoped for a more pronounced rebound following May’s 4% decline. The weaker reading is primarily due to softer demand in the transport sector. Core capital goods orders proved resilient, which somewhat stabilised sentiment. Furthermore, increased spending on AI-related components was clearly evident; the primary drivers of the June rebound were computers and electronic equipment (+3.1% m/m). Performance was also respectable in base metals (+1.1% m/m) as well as electrical equipment and appliances (+0.9% m/m).

Tuesday

Australia

• At the Anika Foundation meeting in Sydney, Michele Bullock, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, delivered a speech. She noted that while core inflation is rising largely in line with the RBA’s May projections, it remains at an unacceptably high level. Further softening of domestic demand and a cooling of the labour market will likely be necessary. For the market, such communications were deemed insufficient. Valuations for rate hikes have declined, and the next move upward is no longer fully priced in.

📆 Macroeconomic calendar

Tuesday

• United States: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (July)Time: 3:00 PMPrevious: 91.2Consensus: 92.4
• Time: 3:00 PM
• Previous: 91.2
• Consensus: 92.4
• API report on crude oil inventory changesTime: 9:30 PMPrevious: +2.6MConsensus: -1.5M
• Time: 9:30 PM
• Previous: +2.6M
• Consensus: -1.5M

Thursday

• Australia: CPI inflation (Q2)Time: 2:30 AMPrevious: 4.1%Consensus: 4.1%
• Time: 2:30 AM
• Previous: 4.1%
• Consensus: 4.1%

🗂️ Earnings releases

• Boeing ($BA.US) – Before Market Open (BMO)
• SNDL ($SNDL.US) – Before Market Open (BMO)
• PayPal ($PYPL.US) – Before Market Open (BMO)
• Coca-Cola ($KO.US) – Before Market Open (BMO)
• Royal Caribbean ($RCL.US) – Before Market Open (BMO)
• UPS ($UPS.US) – Before Market Open (BMO)
• Corning ($GLW.US) – Before Market Open (BMO)
• Ford ($F.US) – After Market Close (AMC)
• Tilray ($TLRY.US) – After Market Close (AMC)
• Visa ($V.US) – After Market Close (AMC)
• Bloom Energy ($BE.US) – After Market Close (AMC)
• EA ($EA.US) – After Market Close (AMC)
• Seagate ($STX.US) – After Market Close (AMC)

3 markets to watch

• Crude oil: The beginning of the week was dominated by reports of a halt in hostilities between the US and Iran, which resulted in significant price declines for key energy commodities. In recent hours, we have received information regarding discussions between Iran and Oman, a pivotal mediator in the conflict. Their objective is to establish “maritime traffic mechanisms” within the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, the Strait effectively remains closed (according to Kpler data, vessel traffic is restricted to a maximum of a dozen or so daily, compared with approximately 80 to 140 under standard conditions).
• US500: The index concluded Monday nearly unchanged. On one hand, it was supported by lower oil prices, while on the other, it was weighed down by poor performance within the semiconductor sector. Prior to the US market open, several significant publications from corporate giants (Boeing, PayPal and Coca-Cola) are expected.
• EURUSD: The pair remains highly sensitive to shifts in market sentiment. After Monday’s opening, it breached the 1.141 level, but is currently oscillating around 1.137. Key to its future trajectory will be Wednesday’s conference by Chair Warsh.

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