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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Gets some relief from Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire
- EUR/USD edges up to near 1.1208 on the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire announcement.
- Heightened French fiscal concerns are likely to keep the Euro under pressure.
- The US Dollar ticks down at the start of the US CPI week.
The Euro (EUR) is marginally higher at around 1.1208 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Monday. The major currency pair gets slight relief from the announcement of an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, which has put some pressure on oil prices.
Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine through a post on Truth Social.
However, the outlook of the Euro is expected to remain uncertain due to ongoing French fiscal risks amid ballooning interest obligations on government-backed securities.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) starts the week on a cautious note ahead of United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which will be published on Wednesday. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades subduedly at around 102.20.
The US inflation data is expected to have a significant influence on Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate expectations. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the September policy meeting, released last week, showed that officials are highly concerned regarding inflation remaining well above the 2% target.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1209, maintaining a bearish near-term tone as spot holds beneath the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1330.
The pair remains pressured after its recent slide, with the oversold 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 27 hinting that while downside momentum is stretched, sellers still dominate while price stays capped under the daily EMA.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-day EMA near 1.1330, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease the current downward pressure and signal a more sustained correction. Looking down, the pair could witness a fresh downside leg if it fails to hold the one-year low at 1.1161.
