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Gold extends rally as markets await US PCE and Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech
- Gold extends last week’s strong rally and climbs to its highest level since May 15.
- Traders await US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech later this week.
- XAU/USD keeps a bullish technical bias above key daily moving averages, though the RSI signals overbought conditions.
Gold (XAU/USD) holds intraday gains at the start of American trading hours on Monday, building on the strong rally seen last week following the US Treasury’s buyback announcement. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,658, up nearly 1.2% on the day at levels last seen on May 15.
The Treasury’s decision to increase its liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated government bonds weighed heavily on the Greenback, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) plunging to a three-month low. Gold received a double boost from the move, benefiting from a weaker USD while also attracting safe-haven demand as investors focused on concerns surrounding US fiscal policy and rising government debt.
Strategists at OCBC highlight that “USD debasement has re-emerged as a market theme” after the US Treasury unexpectedly expanded its long-end buyback programme, a move they say signals “discomfort with the recent rise in long-dated yields.” They add that the “resulting unwind of US steepener positions has likely reinforced other debasement trades, including a weaker USD, a rebound in gold and higher US inflation breakevens.”
However, long-term US Treasury yields remain elevated despite the buyback announcement, which could put the brakes on Gold’s advance. The 30-year Treasury yield trades around 5.24%, close to its recent 19-year high of 5.33%. Higher yields can weigh on the non-yielding metal by increasing the opportunity cost of holding Gold.
The US Dollar is also firmer on Monday after last week’s sharp decline. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 98.97, up about 0.12% on the day.
Market attention now turns to key US event risks later this week, with the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index due on Wednesday before Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.
Investors will watch the PCE report closely to assess whether the recent moderation in inflation is enough for the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged again at its September meeting, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing around a 38% probability of a rate hike.
Still, energy-driven inflation risks remain in focus as Middle East tensions restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The US is set to unveil fresh “economic D-Day” sanctions on Iran later on Monday, while Tehran says it will use all available bilateral means to counter the measures.
Technical analysis: Buyers hold the upper hand as RSI turns overbought
XAU/USD maintains a bullish near-term bias as price holds above both the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 100-day SMA. The metal is advancing within a strong uptrend, supported by a moderately firm Average Directional Index at 33, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart at 71 has entered overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum is stretched but still dominant.
A positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reinforces the constructive tone, with the broader structure favoring further gains as long as price stays above the key moving averages and upper Fibonacci supports.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,685, followed by the cycle high anchor near the 100.0% retracement at $4,886. On the downside, first support is seen at the 61.8% retracement at $4,528, closely backed by the 200-day SMA at $4,516, forming a nearby demand cluster.
Deeper support levels emerge at the 50.0% retracement at $4,417 and the 100-day SMA at $4,379, with additional structural floors at the 38.2% retracement at $4,307 and the 23.6% retracement at $4,170, where buyers would likely attempt to defend the broader bullish trend if a corrective pullback unfolds.
