Gold remains depressed as skepticism over US-Iran truce supports USD

• Gold trades with a mild negative bias on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through selling.
• The fragile US-Iran ceasefire supports the USD and acts as a headwind for the commodity.
• The Fed’s dovish outlook caps the USD and lends support to the non-yielding yellow metal.

Gold (XAU/USD) once again shows some resilience below the $4,700 mark during the Asian session on Thursday, and for now, seems to have stalled the previous day’s retracement slide from a three-week high. Skepticism over the durability of the US-Iran ceasefire benefits the US Dollar’s (USD) reserve currency status and acts as a headwind for the commodity. However, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish outlook holds back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and helps limit the downside for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Israel carried out a large wave of air strikes across Lebanon, saying that the ceasefire was not extended to Lebanon due to the role of the armed group Hezbollah. The White House also confirmed that Lebanon is not part of the two-week ceasefire drawn up between Iran and the US. In response, Iran once again shut down shipping traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz and threatened to withdraw from the ceasefire if Israel continues to attack Lebanon. This keeps a lid on the optimism and supports the USD, undermining the Gold price.

Meanwhile, Minutes from the March 17–18 FOMC meeting released on Wednesday revealed a higher-for-longer stance, with officials in no rush to cut interest rates amid upside risks to inflation stemming from Middle East energy price shocks. That said, policymakers still signaled one rate reduction by the end of this year and another in 2027, though the timing remains unclear. This caps the attempted USD recovery from a nearly one-month low, touched the previous day, and turns out to be a key factor offering some support to the Gold price.

Traders also seem hesitant ahead of the release of the crucial US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – later during the North American session. Apart from this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Friday would be looked for more cues about the Fed’s policy outlook and drive the USD price, providing some meaningful impetus to the Gold price. Nevertheless, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants caution before positioning for a firm intraday direction for the XAU/USD pair.

XAU/USD 4-hour chart

Gold seems vulnerable amid bearish technical setup; acceptance below $4,700 awaited

The XAU/USD pair holds beneath the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 50.0% retracement of the March downside, keeping a bearish bias intact. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator slips into negative territory, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around a neutral 52, hinting at waning bullish momentum rather than a fresh impulsive leg higher.

Meanwhile, initial support emerges at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement around $4,604, with further cushions at the 23.6% level near $4,412 and the prior swing low region close to $4,102, where buyers would be expected to show more interest. On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at $4,758, followed by a heavier barrier in the $4,895–$4,914 zone where the 200-period SMA and the 61.8% retracement converge, ahead of higher hurdles at the $5,000 psychological mark.

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