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Bonds

India 10Y Yield Steady on Oil, CPI

The yield on India’s 10-year G-Sec hovered around 6.78%, trading in a tight range as elevated oil prices restrained demand for government bonds ahead of key India and US inflation data. Brent crude rose 0.8% to $89.6 per barrel, as uncertainty over the Middle East conflict kept oil prices elevated and raised inflation concerns. Meanwhile, India’s July inflation data, due later Wednesday, is expected to show inflation rising to 4.50% from 4.38% in June, while a hotter-than-expected US reading could revive Fed rate-hike bets and put upward pressure on Indian yields by narrowing the yield premium over US bonds. However, expectations for further RBI rate hikes have eased since the central bank kept rates unchanged last week and lowered its inflation forecasts. Strong foreign inflows and ample liquidity have also supported bonds, with the RBI’s diaspora deposit scheme attracting over $36.7 billion as of July 17, while the daily average cash surplus exceeded INR 3 trillion in August.

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