Iron ore futures stabilized above CNY 810 per ton, moving sideways over the past two weeks as investors assessed disruptions from the Middle East conflict and the impact of the cyclone season in Australia. Supply risks linked to the Iran war have lifted fuel and shipping costs, maintaining a risk premium on prices. Meanwhile, supply concerns eased after Tropical Cyclone Narelle caused only limited port disruptions in Australia’s Pilbara region. In China, production curbs in the steel sector weighed on iron ore demand, with authorities reaffirming efforts to reduce overcapacity amid slowing economic activity. Elsewhere, Australia’s BHP Group and state-backed China Mineral Resources Group remain at a standoff over their 2026 supply contract, although Beijing has temporarily eased the import ban on BHP’s Jimblebar fines.
