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January Nymex natural gas (NGF26) on Monday closed down sharply by -0.377 (-7.13%).
Jan nat-gas prices plunged on Monday after updated weather forecasts showed US temperatures warming mid-month, potentially curbing nat-gas heating demand. Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said that the forecast shifted slightly colder over he eastern and southern US for December 18-22, but noticeably warmer elsewhere. Also, other weather models support a broad-scale warmer risk as cold air is confined to Canada.
Last Friday, nat-ga prices rallied to a nearly 3-year nearest-futures high as late-autumn temperatures have remained well below normal and are expected to persist in the near term, boosting heating demand and shrinking nat-gas storage levels.
US (lower-48) dry gas production on Monday was 113.1 bcf/day (+8.3% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Monday was 114.7 bcf/day (+30.1% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Monday were 18.0 bcf/day (+1.0% w/w), according to BNEF.
As a supportive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended November 29 rose +2.11% y/y to 76,459 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending November 29 rose +2.99% y/y to 4,289,746 GWh.
Higher US nat-gas production is a bearish factor for prices. On November 12, the EIA raised its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas production by +1.0% to 107.67 bcf/day from September’s estimate of 106.60 bcf/day. US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs recently posting a 2-year high.
Last Thursday’s weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices, as nat-gas inventories for the week ended November 28 fell by -12 bcf, a smaller draw than the market consensus of -18 bcf and than the 5-year weekly average of a -43 bcf draw. As of November 28, nat-gas inventories were down -0.4% y/y and were +5.1% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies. As of December 3, gas storage in Europe was 74% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 84% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending December 5 fell by -1 to 129, just below the 2.25-year high of 130 rigs from November 28. In the past year, the number of gas rigs has risen from the 4.5-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.
