Oil falls after Qatar talks. China injects liquidity, while the US prepares for elections.

Key takeaways

• Crude oil prices fell sharply as Qatari mediation and an Iranian proposal raised expectations for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• The People’s Bank of China injected 541 billion CNY through overnight repo operations to stabilize local stock markets.
• Precious metals rebounded strongly as gold and silver recovered from heavy forced liquidations.
• Wall Street futures advanced as investors positioned themselves ahead of the US midterm elections.

• Crude oil pulls back sharply from highs (Brent -3.2% to around 109.7 USD/b, WTI -2.4% to around 100.5 USD/b) in response to Qatari mediation and an Iranian plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, despite ongoing attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf.
• Chinese authorities step in to rescue stock markets: the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) launched daily overnight repo liquidity injections at a fixed rate of 1.25% (541 billion CNY injection) and convened a meeting with regulators regarding stock buybacks, triggering a rally in Asia (ChiNext +3.3%, Kospi +2.8%).
• Wall Street futures recover losses following Friday’s tech sell-off (US100 gains approx. 1.0%, US500 rises 0.5%), as investors position themselves ahead of Tuesday’s US midterm elections.

🇺🇸 Wall Street: how did the session end?

• Friday’s session brought steep declines across major indices, dominated by concerns over AI infrastructure costs and hawkish comments from Fed members (e.g., Logan suggesting the need for at least two more rate hikes): the Dow Jones fell 1.09% (closing at 51,775.17 pts), the S&P 500 dropped 1.82% (7,580.07 pts), the Russell 2000 slipped 1.66% (2,811.84 pts), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 tumbled 3.46% (28,384.85 pts).
• Sentiment is improving this morning. Futures point to a rebound: US500 is up about 0.54% to around 7,655 pts, US100 gains nearly 0.97% trading near 28,822 pts, US30 strengthens by 0.37% to around 52,116 pts, and US2000 rises 0.62% to around 2,839 pts.
• The VIX volatility index falls 3.38% to around 19.44 pts, moving away from the psychological barrier of 20 pts.
• S&P 500 movers at the close:
• Top gainers: FedEx Freight Holding (FDXF, +14.83%, Industrials), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN, +13.96%, Healthcare), Global Payments (GPN, +12.86%, Financials), GoDaddy (GDDY, +10.67%, Communication Services), Cboe Global Markets (CBOE, +7.04%, Financials), and Veralto (VLTO, +7.03%, Industrials).
• Top losers: Reddit (RDDT, -29.55%, Communication Services) and Intel (INTC, -28.84%, Technology — plummeting following earnings and escalating fears over returns on massive AI investments, dragging down the entire semiconductor sector), Illumina (ILMN, -18.58%, Healthcare), Twilio (TWLO, -14.93%, Technology), SanDisk (SNDK, -13.49%, Technology), and Coherent (COHR, -11.87%, Technology).

🌏 Asia

• South Korea’s Kospi posted the strongest gains in the region, rising 2.8% (Kosdaq +1.6%). The catalyst included President Lee’s declaration to nearly double budget spending on AI investments in 2027 to 21.3 trillion KRW.
• Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained around 1.48%, reaching the 63,360 pts region, benefiting from a global recovery in tech stocks despite the manufacturing PMI reading hitting a 7-month low.
• Chinese markets rebound strongly after the CSI 300 index’s worst month in a decade: the Shanghai Composite gained about 1.2%, China A50 rose 1.00% to around 12,912 pts, and the Hang Seng rose 0.41% to around 23,450 pts — markets were supported by reports of a government stabilization package for the stock market and the implementation of overnight repo operations.
• Australia’s ASX 200 came under pressure, falling 0.51% to around 8,846 pts amid concerns over Tuesday’s rate hike by the RBA and another declining factory activity reading.

🇪🇺 Europe before the opening

• Futures on European indices point to a mostly positive session open: DAX 40 (DE40) rises by approx. 0.38% to around 25,975 pts, Euro Stoxx 50 (EU50) gains 0.51% trading near 6,163 pts, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) remains stable (+0.02% around 10,747 pts).
• The exception remains the French CAC 40 (FRA40), whose futures are down about 0.38%, moving down to around 7,969 pts.
• The European volatility index VSTOXX rises 5.98% to 20.75 pts, indicating caution among investors in the Old Continent ahead of a series of manufacturing PMI releases and the US elections.

💱 Currencies and commodities

• Crude oil records a sharp sell-off: Brent crude (OIL) falls 3.21% to around 109.74 USD/b, while WTI (OIL.WTI) drops 2.40% to around 100.47 USD/b.
• The market is discounting negotiations in Doha and Tehran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days on the condition of US concessions, although Goldman Sachs raised its December forecast for Brent to 105 USD due to ongoing attacks in the region.
• Gold (GOLD) rises 1.09% to around 3,915.93 USD/oz, and silver (SILVER) gains 2.70% trading around 50.40 USD/oz.
• Precious metals bounce back from Friday’s wave of forced position liquidations (margin calls), which drove gold to a one-year low against rising debt yields and hawkish Fed statements.
• EURUSD rises 0.29% to around 1.1184, while GBPUSD gains 0.12% to around 1.3400 amid slight US dollar weakness at the start of the week.
• USDJPY rises 0.23% to around 157.80. Interestingly, the yen weakens against the dollar despite warnings from Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama regarding “chaotic fluctuations” and a reminder of the importance of the joint currency statement with the US.
• The Polish zloty sees slight strengthening against the dollar, despite weekend turmoil concerning the Constitutional Tribunal crisis: USDPLN drops 0.28% to around 3.9451, connected to global risk appetite and a falling dollar amid lower oil prices. However, EURPLN remains higher and approaches 4.42.

📊 Macroeconomics: economic data released

• China: The RatingDog Manufacturing PMI for October came in at 52.0 pts (consensus: 52.0 pts; previous: 52.1 pts), confirming solid expansion in the private and export sectors and the fastest output growth rate since April, offsetting weaker weekend official NBS government data (drop to 49.3 pts).
• Japan: Final October manufacturing PMI stood at 53.3 pts (in line with consensus and flash reading: 53.3 pts), remaining in growth territory, though hitting a 7-month low amid rising input cost pressures.
• Australia: Building Approvals momentum in September rose 5.1% MoM (consensus expected +1.8%, following a previous reading of -5.2% MoM), signaling a recovery in multi-family housing, while manufacturing PMI remained in contraction at 49.6 pts (previously 49.7 pts).
• Australia: Monthly MI Inflation Gauge accelerated to 0.5% MoM (previously 0.3% MoM), coinciding with near-full market pricing of tomorrow’s RBA rate hike (31 of 32 surveyed economists expect rates to rise to 4.85%).
• India: HSBC/S&P Global manufacturing PMI for October came in at 54.7 pts (forecast: 54.8 pts), maintaining a very fast pace of expansion.

🔑 Key overnight developments

• Middle East and Strait of Hormuz: Qatari mediation in Doha enters its third day. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi presented a plan to reopen the route in two days in exchange for sanctions relief and a reduction in US military presence.
• However, Donald Trump declared that he is “in no rush.” The maritime situation remains critical — the UK’s UKMTO confirmed two missile strikes on a tanker north of Saudi Arabia, with at least 10 incidents reported since October 31. OPEC+ kept December production targets unchanged.
• PBOC’s new liquidity mechanism: The People’s Bank of China transitioned to daily overnight repo operations at a 1.25% rate (541 billion CNY injection) and announced coordination with financial regulators to boost loans for stock buybacks by listed companies.
• US Midterm Elections (Midterms 2026): Final hours before tomorrow’s vote: nationwide polls indicate a Democratic lead, threatening Republicans with the loss of control over the House of Representatives (+3 seats needed) or the Senate (+4 seats) and the prospect of legislative gridlock for President Trump regarding debt and Fed nominations.
• Expansion of AI alliances: OpenAI signed a series of 5-year strategic agreements with UAE entities (including G42, state oil company ADNOC, and sovereign wealth fund Mubadala) for commercial deployments of advanced models across government and energy sectors.
• Crypto sector incidents: The FBI officially attributed a $6 billion asset theft from Binance to North Korea, while BTCPay Server infrastructure urged users to disable nodes following reports of drained wallets; Bitcoin struggles to hold support, testing the $79,000 level.

📅 What’s ahead on the calendar (CET)?

• 09:15–10:00 | Eurozone | Package of October manufacturing PMIs (Spain 09:15 consensus 50.4; Italy 09:45 consensus 49.9; France final 09:50 consensus 49.3; Germany final 09:55 consensus 54.2; Eurozone final 10:00 consensus 52.4).
• 10:30 | United Kingdom | Final Manufacturing PMI for October (consensus: 52.8).
• 13:00 | Eurozone | Speech by German Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel.
• 15:45 | USA | Final S&P Global manufacturing PMI for October (consensus: 56.0).
• 16:00 | USA | ISM Manufacturing report for October (consensus: 54.5 pts) along with the Prices Paid sub-index (consensus: 77.2 pts) and construction spending (consensus: 0.4% MoM).
• Technical note: Daylight saving time ended in the US over the past weekend (clocks set back), returning to the standard time difference relative to Europe (Wall Street opens at 15:30 Polish time).

🔎 Key assets to watch

• Brent Crude (OIL) — down over 3% to near 109.7 USD driven by Doha negotiations; the commodity remains heavily overbought on a 5-year horizon (Z5L +1.93, 5Y percentile at 95.0%, Z1R +1.42, RSI 56.8), pointing to heightened volatility given the divergence between diplomacy and further tanker attacks.
• Silver (SILVER) — dynamic rebound of 2.70% above 50.4 USD; the instrument is moving out of technically oversold territory (RSI 29.8, 1-year Z-score at Z1R -1.62, Z5L +0.77, 5Y percentile 79.4%), favoring further short covering after Friday’s panic.
• Gold (GOLD) — up 1.09% toward 3,916 USD after hitting one-year lows; the RSI indicator at 33.7 and a strongly negative 1-year Z-score (Z1R -1.59, Z5L +1.12, 5Y percentile 77.6%) signal the fading of margin call liquidations.
• China A50 (CH50cash) — strengthens 1.00% to around 12,912 pts following the implementation of overnight repo operations and announced support for stock buybacks; the index shows extreme 1-year oversold levels (Z1R -2.98, RSI 29.2, 5Y percentile at just 32.7%), creating room for a stronger recovery movement.
• NASDAQ 100 (US100) — futures bounce nearly 1.0% following Friday’s tech sell-off triggered by Intel’s results; the RSI indicator cooled to 37.9 (Z1R +0.52, Z5L +1.70, 5Y percentile 90.7%), with today’s ISM reading and tomorrow’s US elections serving as key tests for the durability of the rebound.

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