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RBA Flags Inflation Risks Despite Policy Hold: August Meeting Minutes
Australia’s inflation has eased from its March peak, with underlying price growth slightly lower than in late 2025, the Reserve Bank’s August minutes showed. However, board members judged inflation “too high” and excess demand persistent. Meanwhile, financial conditions were seen as somewhat restrictive after earlier hikes. Staff projected inflation would only gradually return to target by late 2027, with risks skewed upward. Arguments for a 25-bp hike cited upside risks: Middle East conflict driving oil prices, firms passing costs more fully, stronger AI/data-center investment, resilient demand, and weak productivity. The case for holding steady rested on signs policy was already restrictive, inflation slightly below forecast, and unemployment rising. Downside risks included faster labor easing, weaker demand, and housing drag. Ultimately, policymakers left rates unchanged but reaffirmed readiness to act if upside risks materialise.
