Soybean Prices Approach Three-Month Low as Record US Harvest and Brazilian Competition Weigh on Market

Soybean futures have fallen towards $11.90 per bushel, approaching their lowest level in three months as expectations of abundant global supplies and uncertainty surrounding Chinese demand weigh on market sentiment.

The US harvest is progressing ahead of its seasonal average, keeping production on track for a potential record. Competition from Brazil is adding further pressure, with a weaker Brazilian real improving the competitiveness of Brazilian exports in international markets. Meanwhile, planting for the 2026/27 US crop has reached 53% of the projected area, six percentage points ahead of last year’s pace.

Demand concerns are also emerging from China, where commercial soybean oil inventories have climbed to almost 1.5 million tonnes. However, fresh Chinese purchasing activity and additional export sales reported by the USDA are providing some support, suggesting that international demand has not disappeared despite concerns about consumption and inventory accumulation.

Soybean Market Snapshot

Current Soybean Price Action

Soybean futures have weakened towards $11.90 per bushel as the market increasingly focuses on the prospect of abundant global supplies.

The rapid progress of the US harvest is reinforcing expectations that production will remain strong. With 88% of the crop harvested as of November 1, progress is four percentage points ahead of the five-year average.

This reduces uncertainty surrounding the completion of the US harvest and keeps the market focused on the potential for record production.

Additional pressure is coming from Brazil, where currency weakness is improving export competitiveness. As Brazilian exporters benefit from a weaker real, US soybeans face increased competition in international markets.

Demand concerns are also weighing on sentiment, particularly as China’s soybean oil inventories continue to increase. However, recent USDA export sales demonstrate that international buyers are still purchasing US supplies.

US Harvest Progress and Production Outlook

The US soybean harvest is approaching completion, with 88% of the crop harvested by November 1.

This represents progress four percentage points ahead of the five-year average, indicating that harvesting operations are moving ahead of the normal seasonal pace.

The faster harvest is important because it reduces uncertainty surrounding the availability of newly harvested soybeans and allows the market to focus more closely on final production and inventory expectations.

The current outlook keeps US production on track for a potential record, although the supplied figures do not provide a final production estimate.

Planting progress for the 2026/27 crop is also developing ahead of last year’s pace. Planting has reached 53% of the projected area, six percentage points above the corresponding level a year earlier.

If the planting programme continues at this pace, expectations for future US production could remain substantial, adding another potential source of supply pressure.

Brazilian Competition and Currency Movements

Brazil remains a major competitive influence on the international soybean market.

A weaker Brazilian real makes Brazilian agricultural exports more competitive for international buyers because exporters can receive a greater amount of local currency from dollar-denominated sales.

This can encourage export activity and increase competition for US soybean shipments.

The impact is particularly relevant while the US harvest is progressing rapidly and global supply expectations remain elevated.

If the Brazilian real remains weak, Brazilian exporters may retain a pricing advantage, potentially limiting the ability of US soybean prices to recover.

Currency movements therefore remain an important part of the agricultural market outlook, alongside harvest progress and international purchasing activity.

Chinese Demand and Soybean Oil Inventories

Demand concerns are becoming more prominent as China’s commercial soybean oil inventories approach 1.5 million tonnes.

The latest inventory level represents a 4.3% increase compared with the previous year.

The accumulation reflects strong soybean crushing activity running ahead of consumption. When processing volumes exceed the rate at which soybean oil is used or sold, inventories can increase and create pressure on the wider soybean complex.

This raises questions about the sustainability of Chinese demand for additional soybean products.

However, inventory accumulation does not necessarily indicate that Chinese soybean imports will decline immediately. Crushing requirements, domestic consumption, import economics and government purchasing decisions will continue to influence demand.

For soybean traders, the key issue is whether Chinese processing activity can translate into stronger end-user consumption or whether rising stocks will eventually encourage buyers to reduce purchases.

USDA Export Sales Provide Some Support

Despite concerns about Chinese demand, recent USDA export sales offer a more positive signal for the US soybean market.

The USDA reported a sale of 136,000 MT to China for the 2026/27 marketing year.

Additional sales included:

• 165,150 MT to unknown destinations.
• 132,000 MT to unknown destinations.

These transactions indicate that international buyers continue to secure US soybean supplies despite expectations of strong global production.

The sale to China is particularly relevant because the country remains a major participant in international soybean trade.

However, the broader impact will depend on whether these purchases develop into sustained demand and whether additional sales emerge in subsequent reporting periods.

The market will be watching export activity closely to determine whether international demand can absorb the expected increase in available supply.

Bullish Soybean Market Sentiment

1. Fresh Chinese purchases support export demand: The USDA-reported sale of 136,000 MT to China demonstrates continued buying interest in US soybeans.
2. Additional export sales provide market support: Further sales of 165,150 MT and 132,000 MT to unknown destinations indicate that international demand remains active.
3. Strong crushing activity reflects continued processing demand: China’s substantial soybean crushing activity demonstrates that demand for raw soybeans remains present, even as soybean oil inventories increase.
4. Export demand could absorb part of the US harvest: Sustained international purchasing would help offset the pressure created by expectations of record production.
5. Currency movements remain capable of changing trade competitiveness: A recovery in the Brazilian real could reduce Brazil’s export advantage and improve the competitive position of US suppliers.

Bearish Soybean Market Sentiment

1. The US harvest is progressing ahead of average: With 88% harvested by November 1, the crop is moving towards completion faster than the five-year seasonal pace.
2. Record US production remains a possibility: Expectations of a record harvest are increasing the likelihood of abundant domestic supplies.
3. Brazilian exports remain competitive: A weaker real improves the attractiveness of Brazilian soybeans in international markets, increasing competition for US producers.
4. Chinese soybean oil inventories are rising: Stocks approaching 1.5 million tonnes, up 4.3% year-on-year, indicate that processing activity is outpacing consumption.
5. Future US planting is progressing quickly: The 2026/27 crop has reached 53% of projected planting, six percentage points ahead of last year’s pace.
6. Global supply expectations remain elevated: Strong production prospects in major producing countries could limit the potential for a sustained price recovery.

Soybean Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching

Soybean futures are likely to remain sensitive to the balance between harvest-related supply pressure and evidence of sustained international demand.

The approach towards $11.90 per bushel reflects concerns that the market may have to absorb substantial US production while competing with Brazilian exports.

The most important factors traders should monitor include:

• Completion of the US soybean harvest.
• Final US production and yield assessments.
• Progress of the 2026/27 US planting programme.
• The Brazilian real and its influence on export competitiveness.
• Chinese soybean oil inventories and domestic consumption.
• Further USDA export sales to China and other international destinations.
• Evidence that global demand is keeping pace with available supply.

A sustained increase in Chinese purchases and stronger export sales could help stabilise prices. However, continued inventory accumulation in China, combined with strong US and Brazilian production, could extend the current downward pressure.

Soybean Supply Outlook

The near-term supply outlook remains bearish, with the US harvest progressing ahead of average and production expected to reach a record.

Brazilian competition adds another source of pressure, particularly while currency weakness supports export competitiveness.

The early progress of the 2026/27 US planting programme also places attention on the next production cycle. With 53% of the projected area already planted, the pace is six percentage points ahead of the previous year.

The market will need to assess whether this progress translates into another substantial crop and whether global supply continues to expand faster than demand.

For now, the combination of a rapidly advancing US harvest and competitive Brazilian exports suggests that supply availability is unlikely to provide strong support for prices in the immediate term.

Soybean Demand Outlook

The demand outlook is mixed.

Recent USDA sales demonstrate that international buyers continue to purchase US soybeans, with China accounting for a reported 136,000 MT transaction for the 2026/27 marketing year.

However, rising Chinese soybean oil inventories highlight a potential imbalance between processing activity and final consumption.

If soybean crushing continues to exceed demand for soybean oil, commercial stocks could accumulate further and eventually influence purchasing decisions.

The market will therefore be looking for evidence that export demand and domestic consumption can absorb the additional supply expected from the United States and Brazil.

Continued Chinese purchasing would provide an important source of support, but sustained demand will be necessary to offset the bearish production outlook.

Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions

Soybean futures enter the coming sessions under pressure, with prices approaching a three-month low as the market assesses the prospect of abundant supplies.

The US harvest is progressing rapidly, Brazilian exports remain competitive and Chinese soybean oil inventories are increasing. Together, these developments are creating a challenging environment for prices.

However, fresh USDA export sales provide evidence that international demand remains active. Further purchases from China and other destinations could help limit the downside if buying activity accelerates.

The immediate outlook remains cautious to bearish. A sustained recovery would require stronger evidence that export demand can absorb the expected supply, while continued inventory growth and competitive Brazilian shipments could reinforce selling pressure.

The market’s direction will ultimately depend on whether demand can keep pace with the expanding availability of soybeans.

Today Markets Analysis

Soybean prices are approaching their lowest levels in three months as production expectations increasingly outweigh signs of continued export demand.

The US harvest is nearing completion ahead of its five-year average, while Brazil’s weaker currency is strengthening its competitive position in international markets. At the same time, rising Chinese soybean oil inventories suggest that processing activity is running ahead of consumption.

The USDA’s latest export sales provide an important counterbalance, particularly the reported purchase of 136,000 MT by China. However, the market will need sustained buying activity to absorb the expected increase in global supplies.

For traders, the key consideration is whether international demand can keep pace with the expanding supply outlook. Until stronger evidence emerges, soybean futures are likely to remain vulnerable to pressure from harvest progress, Brazilian competition and rising Chinese inventories.

Currency Hedger View

Soybean producers, agricultural traders, processors and international food businesses face exposure to both commodity-price movements and foreign-exchange fluctuations.

Brazilian exporters are particularly affected by movements in the Brazilian real and the US dollar. Currency depreciation can improve the local-currency value of export receipts and influence the competitiveness and timing of international sales.

For businesses purchasing soybeans or soybean products in US dollars but operating in euros, pounds or other currencies, exchange-rate movements can materially change procurement costs and profit margins.

Currency Hedger helps businesses assess their international currency exposure and explore appropriate foreign-exchange risk-management strategies to improve visibility around future payments, export revenues and operating costs.

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Disclaimer

This market analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell soybeans, agricultural commodities, currencies or any other financial instrument. Agricultural markets involve substantial risk and can experience significant price movements in response to weather, production, export demand, inventory levels, currency movements and changes in market sentiment. Forecasts and market expectations are not guarantees of future performance. Businesses and investors should assess their individual circumstances and seek independent professional advice where appropriate.

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