Facts
- The EURUSD pair rebounded to 1.155 after falling to the 200-day EMA near 1.15, gaining 0.8% as of 12:12 p.m. on Friday, November 7.
- U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson stated that his optimism regarding the end of the U.S. government shutdown has declined.
- The October Challenger report showed a record number of monthly layoffs since 2003, totaling over 153,074 positions eliminated across American companies.
Recommendation
Long position on EURUSD at market price
- Take profit: 1.166
- Stop loss: 1.15
Opinion
The EURUSD has been under heavy selling pressure recently, but the chart now shows early signs of stabilization. The pair rebounded after touching the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA 200) — marked in red on the chart. Recent European PMI data exceeded expectations, while the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and the highest number of layoffs in 22 years in October introduce short-term macroeconomic pressure on the U.S. economy. Both scenarios for December — whether the Fed cuts rates or not — could weigh on the U.S. dollar. No rate cut could increase economic uncertainty and raise concerns about a policy error or even a recession, while a cut would directly weaken the dollar through reduced yield appeal. By mid-2025, a likely change in the Federal Reserve’s leadership could bring another round of rate cuts, which may limit strategic dollar purchases. Given the improving technical setup and the slowing bullish momentum in the U.S. dollar, we recommend entering a long position on EURUSD, with a target at 1.166 (based on recent price reactions) and a stop-loss near the 200-day EMA at 1.15 on the daily timeframe.
Source: xStation5
