S&P 500 — US Large Cap Index
FTSE 100 — UK Blue Chips
Euro Stoxx 50 — Eurozone Leaders
DAX 40 — German Equities
CAC 40 — French Market Index
Nikkei 225 — Japan Benchmark
Hang Seng — Hong Kong Index
Shanghai Composite — China Mainland
ASX 200 — Australian Market
TSX Composite — Canada Index
Nifty 50 — India Large Cap
STI Index — Singapore Market
KOSPI — South Korea Index
Bovespa — Brazil Equities
JSE Top 40 — South Africa Index
IPC Index — Mexico Market
Facts:
- The EUR/USD exchange rate failed to close above the 200-day EMA on yesterday’s daily candle
- The price remains below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA)
Recommendation:
Trade: Short position on the EUR/USD pair at market price
Take Profit 1: 1.14425
Take Profit 2: 1.14115
Stop: 1.16360
Opinion:
From a technical perspective, the EURUSD pair remains in a structural downtrend, which is a key argument for maintaining short positions. The price consistently remains below the 200-, 100-, and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA), which form dynamic resistance and confirm the dominance of supply over demand in the medium term. Prices are moving within a bearish flag pattern (a trend continuation pattern), and current attempts at a rebound are being stifled by successive resistance levels marked by the downward-sloping EMAs, which technically indicates further potential for the euro-dollar exchange rate to depreciate.
An additional and significant catalyst for the dollar’s strengthening is the escalation of the armed conflict in the Middle East, directly driven by the Trump administration’s actions. In his Wednesday address to the nation, the president announced that within the next 2–3 weeks, the United States would strike Iran “extremely hard,” promising simultaneous attacks on all Iranian power plants, which—as Trump stated—“will set the country back to the Stone Age.” The escalation of the military operation codenamed “Operation Epic Fury” is generating a classic flight-to-safety effect—primarily toward the dollar—which, combined with the euro-dollar’s technical weakness, creates a consistent environment conducive to the continuation of the downward trend in the EURUSD pair
Methodology and assumptions:
This recommendation is based on a technical analysis of the EURUSD chart. Classical technical analysis was used to assess the situation and analyze the trend. The target level—take profit 1—was set at the level of previous price reactions, using price action methodology. Take profit 2, on the other hand, is based on the location of last month’s local low. The protective stop-loss order was set above the most recent local high using price action methodology.
