Facts
- The US100 index continues its downward trend, with Donald Trump’s tariff announcement intensifying pressure on Wall Street.
- The risk of a recession in the U.S. economy has increased, while uncertainty remains ahead of potential retaliatory tariffs from China or the European Union.
- Recent U.S. data indicates rising uncertainty among both consumers and American CEOs, while inflation expectations continue to climb.
Recommendation
Short position on US100 at market price
- Stop loss: 20,050
- Take profit: 18,100
Opinion
The technology sector appears particularly vulnerable to the negative consequences of tariffs and global trade restrictions. Increasing investor uncertainty signals that markets are seriously concerned about the outlook for U.S. companies — especially regarding their exposure to the Chinese market. The technical setup for Nasdaq 100 futures (US100) shows strong bearish dominance, with sellers potentially driving the index toward the August 2024 lows. According to Bloomberg forecasts, the trade war is expected to weigh heavily on the U.S. economy. A 20.5 percentage point increase in tariffs is projected to shrink U.S. GDP and raise consumer prices by an average of nearly 1.7% over the next 2–3 years. These estimates do not yet account for any potential retaliatory tariffs.
In an escalation scenario, higher tariffs on U.S. goods and further countermeasures by the United States could result in a GDP contraction of over -4% within two years, along with an additional 2.5% rise in PCE inflation. The market may interpret the current situation as more prolonged, prompting a shift away from U.S. tech equities. Combining these macroeconomic headwinds with the Federal Reserve’s increasingly difficult position and the bearish momentum ahead of today’s U.S. session could push the US100 index toward the 18,000-point area. This move could trigger a 1:1 downward impulse, resembling the sharp February sell-off, which was only partially reversed in mid-March.
We recommend initiating a short position on US100 at market price, targeting 18,100 points, with a protective stop-loss at 20,050 — near the 200-day EMA (red line) and recent key price reaction zones.
US100 Chart (Daily Timeframe)
Source: xStation5
