Facts
- The Nasdaq 100 recorded its strongest session since 2001 yesterday, rising by over 12%.
- Following the euphoric rebound, we are seeing slight profit-taking in US100 futures, which are down 2.8%. However, the decline has slowed around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave that began on April 7.
- The prospect of a 90-day pause in tariffs and a tax cut plan in the United States, which was commented on yesterday by U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, were well-received by the markets.
Recommendation
Long position on US100 at the market price
- Stop loss: 18,250
- Take profit: 19,400 and 20,000
Opinion
Bullish momentum has returned to global stock markets, and after record-breaking declines, U.S. indices may now have at least a short-term recovery ahead — one that could last longer than a single trading session. As yesterday’s session showed, in a scenario of rising risk appetite, capital tends to flow back most readily into technology stocks. Therefore, if the rebound continues, tech companies are expected to recover losses relatively quickly.
Thus, we recommend opening a long position on the US100 index, with two potential take profit targets: 19,400 (the highs from April 9, following Trump’s announcement of a 90-day tariff suspension excluding China) and 20,000, where we see an important psychological level and significant price reactions. We also recommend placing a protective stop loss at 18,250 points, where we find the 50- and 100-session exponential moving averages (black and orange lines), key price reactions, and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave from April 7.
US100 Chart (H1 Interval)
Source: xStation5
