Facts:
- Over the weekend, Maduro was detained in a US-led military operation.
- The dollar successfully defended support around the 97.600 level.
Recommendation:
Long position at market price
- TP1: 98.950
- TP2: 99.400
- SL: 98.000
Opinion:
We believe that the weekend events may have a positive impact on the US dollar and potentially mark a turning point in the current sentiment toward the American currency. The “de-dollarization” narrative — which over the past year contributed to USD weakness and capital inflows into precious metals — is increasingly being challenged by the continued demonstrations of both military and economic strength of the United States. A strong example of this was the weekend special-forces operation aimed at capturing Venezuela’s leader and current president, Nicolás Maduro. The operation was completed successfully in an impressively short timeframe of two hours, with no reported US losses. Although the events have simultaneously increased geopolitical risk and global uncertainty, they also reinforce the perception that the US-centric financial system remains a key pillar of the global order. In this context, we assume that even a partial reversal of the de-dollarization narrative could provide a sufficiently strong argument in favor of a long position on the USD in the short-to-medium term.
We recommend opening a long position at market price on the USDIDX index. At the same time, we advise placing a stop-loss order to minimize potential downside risk.
