The UK’s 10-year gilt yield approached 4.85%, nearing an 18-year high, as conflicting signals from the US and Iran deepened market uncertainty. President Trump claimed Iran seeks a deal “but is afraid to admit it,” while Iranian state media dismissed talks, pushing instead for its own guarantees, including potential fees for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surged, with Brent nearing $105/barrel and on track for its largest monthly gain since 1990. On the data front, British Retail Consortium’s consumer confidence plummeted in March, as the conflict raised fears of prolonged inflation. Markets now price in two to three Bank of England rate hikes, with a 70% chance of a move next month and a second fully expected by July.
Today Markets
