The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note eased to around 4.4% on Monday but remained near its highest levels since July 2025, as investors weighed the escalating Middle East conflict and its impact on inflation, growth, and interest rates. Tensions intensified after Trump said he could “take the oil in Iran” and seize its export hub on Kharg Island, echoing the US military operation in Venezuela earlier this year. The US is also reportedly preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran after additional troops arrived in the region. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen joined the conflict after targeting Israel over the weekend. Surging oil prices from the Iran war bolstered hawkish bets on Federal Reserve policy, with markets speculating on a possible rate increase this year. Investors now look ahead to key US jobs data this week, including the JOLTS and ADP private payrolls reports. The March jobs report will also be released on Friday despite a holiday.
