The U.S. stock market made several attempts today to rebound, although market conditions remain difficult and the outlook uncertain. While the PPI and University of Michigan (UoM) data came in negative for the indexes, they did not trigger a deep sell-off. However, buyers are also not strong enough to reverse the broader market sentiment.
- U.S. indexes are posting slight losses despite ‘recessionary’ sentiment data from the UoM and PPI inflation figures from the U.S.; the US500 is down 0.2%, while the VIX is up nearly 7%, rising above 37.
- PPI inflation showed negative monthly readings and much lower annual growth. Annual inflation expectations rose from 6.2% to 6.7%, and five-year expectations increased to 4.4% from 4.3% in February.
- The UoM sentiment index is at its lowest since 2022, with the expectations index falling below levels seen during COVID-19 and the 2007–2009 financial crisis. The percentage of households expecting higher unemployment rose to 67% — the highest level since 2009.
- BlackRock shares are gaining nearly 1% following earnings results. JPMorgan is up 2.5% on the back of record revenues, while Wells Fargo shares are down nearly 3.4%.
- Shares of Huntington Ingalls (HII.US), the largest U.S. warship builder, are rising 5% after a rating upgrade from Goldman Sachs and support from Trump-era programs bolstering the shipbuilding industry. Analysts raised the price target to $234 per share from the current $210.
- Bank of America analysts upgraded American Express to “buy,” citing recent declines and the company’s resilience to recession.
- Texas Instruments shares are down nearly 9% today after the China Semiconductor Industry Association indicated it would start verifying the origin of imported chips sold in the Chinese market.
Among U.S. companies, the top performers today are JPMorgan, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Broadcom. Sentiment around ‘Big Tech’ remains fairly solid, with Nvidia and Alphabet (GOOGL.US) standing out. Source: xStation5
US Macro readings
US PPI YoY (in March): 2.7% (Forecast 3.3%, Previous 3.2%)
- US PPI MoM: -0.4% (Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.0%)
US Core PPI YoY (in March): 3.3% (Forecast 3.6%, Previous 3.4%)
- US Core PPI MoM: -0.1% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous -0.1%)
Today, PPI data point to lower US producer prices and support the expectations that US trade war will rather affect domestic demand than inflation. US100 gains in first reaction to PPI data.
University Michigan Sentiment Prelim: 50.8 (Forecast 53.8, Previous 57.0)
- University Michigan Condition Prelim: 56.5 (Forecast 60.8, Previous 63.8)
- University Michigan Expectations Prelim: 47.2 (Forecast 50.7, Previous 52.6)
University Michigan 5 Yr Inflation Prelim: 4.4% (Forecast 4.3%, Previous 4.1%)
- University Michigan 1 Yr Inflation Prelim: 6.7% (Forecast 5.2%, Previous 5.0%)
Company News
- American Express (AXP.US) is up 1.9% after Bank of America turned bullish, viewing the credit card provider as recession-resistant and attractive at its current valuation.
- Bruker Corp. (BRKR.US) is up 3% after preliminary first-quarter revenue beat average analyst estimates.
- Cinemark Holdings (CNK.US) gains 2% after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to “overweight,” noting the cinema company is one of the least economically exposed firms in today’s volatile environment.
- EQT (EQT.US) is up nearly 2% as the gas producer expects to report a total derivatives loss of $679 million for the three months ended March 31.
- JPMorgan (JPM.US) rises 2% after the bank’s stock traders delivered record first-quarter revenue, fueled by chaotic market movements triggered by policy announcements from President Donald Trump after he took office in January.
- Morgan Stanley (MS.US) shares are little changed after its stock traders posted first-quarter revenue that beat analysts’ forecasts, with Wall Street’s biggest banks continuing to benefit from turbulence sparked by President Donald Trump’s policies.
- Stellantis (STLA.US) falls 3% after the automaker reported a 9% decline in shipments during the latest three-month period.
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV.US) jumps 9% after the FDA granted fast track designation to its VERVE-102 procedure.
- Wells Fargo (WFC.US) falls, even though the bank beat analysts’ expectations for credit-loss provisions in the first quarter. However, tariff uncertainty clouds the U.S. economic outlook — and also affects the credit impulse.
Texas Instruments (Daily Interval D1)
Texas Instruments shares have experienced an unprecedented sell-off not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic nor 2022 – 2023.
Source: xStation5
U.S. Consumer Expectations
U.S. consumer expectations have fallen to the weakest level since the UoM began publishing data, dropping below COVID-19 and global financial crisis (GFC) levels.
Source: University of Michigan, XTB Research
Inflation Expectations
Inflation expectations surged significantly, and there was a slight uptick in long-term five-year inflation forecasts, which now point to 4.4%.
Source: University of Michigan, XTB Research
The material on this page does not constitute financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other specific needs. All information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyzes published on the Website or transmitted To you by other means, it is provided for information purposes only and should in no way be construed as an offer or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of a legal or financial nature on which any investment decisions you make should be based exclusively To your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation, or other specific needs, any decision to act on the information published on the Website or sent to you by other means is entirely at your own risk if you In doubt or unsure about your understanding of a particular product, instrument, service or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading. Investing in CFDs carries a high level of risk, as they are leveraged products and have small movements Often the market can result in much larger movements in the value of your investment, and this can work against you or in your favor. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account investments objectives and level of experience, before trading and, if necessary, seek independent advice.
