Wheat futures surged above $5.40 per bushel, marking their highest level since July 22, on expectations of a rebound in Chinese demand. Over the weekend, a major Chinese grains importer reportedly inquired about US wheat cargoes for shipment between December and February, following last week’s trade truce between the two countries. According to US Department of Agriculture data, China has not purchased American wheat since early October last year. Despite the bullish signals, ample global supply may temper gains. The USDA has not yet released its weekly Crop Progress reports, but analysts estimate US winter wheat planting is 84% complete, broadly in line with the multi-year average. Elsewhere, Russian consultancy SovEcon raised its 2025 wheat production forecast for Russia to 87.8 million metric tons, citing record yields in Siberia. In Argentina, output is projected at 23 million tons, matching the country’s record 2021–22 harvest.
