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SNB Interest Rate Decision Overview
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) interest rate decision is scheduled this Thursday, September 25, 2025, at 07:30 GMT, which will be followed by the post-meeting press conference at 08:00 GMT. The central bank is widely expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 0.0% for the second straight meeting after six consecutive rate cuts since March of last year.
Moreover, market projections do not anticipate further rate cuts for the year, and any adjustments next year remain uncertain. Hence, investors will scrutinize comments from SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel for cues about thresholds required to consider negative rates again. This, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the Swiss Franc (CHF) in the near term and provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/CHF pair.
How could the decision/outlook affect USD/CHF?
Domestic inflation is below the SNB’s target, and the recent CHF appreciation could easily force the SNB to re-enter negative interest rates. This, in turn, negates the possibility of any hawkish signal and suggests that the path of least resistance for the CHF is to the downside.
Heading into the key central bank event risk, the USD/CHF pair is seen oscillating in a narrow band around mid-0.7900s amid a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick. A dovish outlook should allow spot prices to build on the previous day’s bounce from the 0.7900 neighborhood, or the weekly low, and surpass last week’s swing high, around the 0.7970-0.7975 area. Bulls might then aim towards reclaiming the 0.8000 psychological mark.
Conversely, any hawkish surprise could prompt aggressive selling and drag the USD/CHF pair back to the 0.7900 mark. Some follow-through selling will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and drag spot prices to the 0.7860-0.7855 intermediate support en route to the 0.7830 region, or the lowest level since September 2011, touched last week.
