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Aluminum futures in the UK rose above $3,210 per tonne, the highest level in nearly six weeks, amid ongoing supply constraints and slower production. Output outside China fell 6.7% year-on-year in July, mainly due to reduced operating rates at several Middle Eastern smelters. These pressures were compounded by China’s 45 million-ton production cap, which is expected to become more restrictive this year. Geopolitical tensions have also prompted consumers to draw down exchange inventories, with LME stocks falling to their lowest level this century. In addition, Alcoa Corp. cut its production forecast following operational issues at an Australian refinery. However, some of these supply concerns could be offset by anticipated capacity restarts and expansion progress among producers, including the restart of the Slovalco smelter in Slovakia in Q4 of 2026 and Metals’ Missouri smelter by year-end. Emirates Global Aluminium also continued restoring production at its Al Taweelah facility.
