Arabica coffee futures traded around $2.9 per pound, the lowest in over three weeks, as prospects of ample supply offset the effects of a stronger Brazilian real. According to an analysis by StoneX released on April 6, the global coffee market is expected to register a surplus of approximately 10 million bags in 2026, mainly due to an anticipated record harvest in Brazil, alongside strong production in Vietnam. Brazil is expected to harvest 75.3 million bags in 2026/27, a 20.8% yearly increase, driven by recovery from the previous season’s weather damage and structural improvements in production. Global coffee stocks are projected to increase from around 38 million to over 48 million bags by 2026, with Brazilian reserves expected to grow by approximately 5 million bags. In Brazilian coffee fields, producers are moving into the harvest season, with Robusta in its early stages and Arabica approaching its peak harvesting period in the coming months.

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