Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell below 4.9%, retreating from an over two-week high as risk-off sentiment intensified amid escalating geopolitical tensions and softer expectations for domestic policy tightening. A recent run of softer economic data prompted investors to rule out another rate hike at the Reserve Bank’s upcoming policy decision next week, as three rate hikes earlier this year began to filter through the economy. Economists have also scaled back bets for an August move and now see rates peaking at 4.35%. Still, Governor Michele Bullock reiterated last week that the central bank remains firmly focused on bringing inflation back to target. The upcoming May CPI print on June 24 would provide clear evidence of pass-through to higher prices after a weaker April reading. Meanwhile, hostilities in the Middle East dragged on as the US launched fresh strikes on Iran, casting doubt on a lasting peace deal, which would extend the closure of the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

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