Soybean Prices Fall as Export Sales Hit Three-Week Low and US Production Forecasts Rise

US soybean futures came under pressure, with contracts closing lower as weaker soy oil prices, softer export sales and expectations of increased domestic production weighed on the market. Soybean contracts finished between 4½ and 14 cents lower, while the national average cash soybean price declined 14 cents to $11.24 per bushel.

Export demand remains substantial, with weekly 2026/27 soybean sales reaching 1.456 million metric tonnes. However, this represented a three-week low, despite remaining 16.63% above the corresponding week last year. China accounted for the largest share of purchases, buying 873,900 MT.

Attention is now turning towards next Tuesday’s USDA Crop Production report. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect soybean yields to increase by 0.4 bushel per acre to 53.5 bushels per acre, potentially lifting production to 4.596 billion bushels. If realised, this would represent an increase of 34 million bushels from the previous estimate.

Market Snapshot

Soybean Futures Decline Across the Forward Curve

Soybean futures finished lower across the main contracts, reflecting pressure from weaker product markets and expectations of a larger US crop.

November 2026 soybeans settled at $11.81 per bushel, down 12¼ cents. January 2027 contracts declined 14 cents to $11.8825, while March 2027 futures also lost 14 cents, closing at $11.9625.

Further along the forward curve, November 2027 soybeans settled at $11.8175, down 6½ cents.

The national average nearby cash soybean price fell 14 cents to $11.24, while new-crop cash soybeans declined 7½ cents to $11.1475.

The broad decline in futures and cash prices indicates continued pressure across the soybean complex. Traders are now balancing current export demand against the possibility of higher domestic production, which could increase available supplies.

Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil Deliver Mixed Signals

The soybean product market showed contrasting movements.

Soybean meal futures recorded mixed trading, with contracts ranging from $1.40 lower to $2.50 higher. Soybean oil futures experienced more consistent weakness, falling between 94 and 132 points.

The divergence between meal and oil is important because both products contribute to the value of soybean processing. Stronger meal prices can offer some support to crushing economics, but weakness in soybean oil reduces the contribution from the vegetable oil side of the complex.

The next sessions will reveal whether meal demand can provide sufficient support to offset continued weakness in soybean oil and the broader soybean futures market.

US Soybean Export Sales Hit Three-Week Low

USDA export sales data showed 1.456 million metric tonnes of 2026/27 soybean sales during the week ending October 29.

Although sales reached a three-week low, the figure remained 16.63% above the same week last year, indicating that export demand is still running ahead of the comparable previous-year level.

China was the largest reported buyer, purchasing 873,900 MT. Algeria accounted for another 132,000 MT.

The concentration of purchases in China highlights the importance of Chinese import demand to the US soybean export outlook. Continued buying from China could help absorb available US supplies, although traders will be watching whether future weekly sales maintain their current year-on-year advantage.

Soybean meal sales totalled 390,381 MT, within the estimated range of 250,000–500,000 MT. Soybean oil sales were 1,523 MT, also within the expected range of 0–10,000 MT.

The export figures therefore present a mixed picture: soybean sales have eased from the previous week, while meal and oil sales remain within market expectations.

USDA Crop Production Report in Focus

The next major market catalyst is Tuesday’s USDA Crop Production report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service.

A Bloomberg survey of analysts indicates expectations for the US soybean yield to increase by 0.4 bushel per acre to 53.5 bushels per acre.

Production is forecast at 4.596 billion bushels. If realised, this would represent an increase of 34 million bushels from the previous estimate.

Higher yields and production would potentially increase the volume of soybeans available to the domestic and export markets. This could place additional pressure on prices, particularly if export demand does not strengthen sufficiently to absorb the additional supply.

However, the final market reaction will depend on how the USDA figures compare with expectations. A production estimate below market expectations could provide support, while a larger-than-anticipated crop could reinforce the current bearish sentiment.

China Soybean Import Forecast Raises Demand Questions

USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service GAIN report on China included an agricultural attaché estimate of 110 million metric tonnes for Chinese soybean imports in 2026/27.

This compares with the official USDA projection of 115 million tonnes.

The difference of 5 million tonnes is significant for the global soybean balance. If imports ultimately follow the lower estimate, demand for internationally traded soybeans could be weaker than reflected in the official USDA forecast.

China’s actual purchasing activity will therefore remain a major influence on the market. Its purchase of 873,900 MT in the latest US export sales report demonstrates substantial buying activity, but traders will need to assess whether this pace can be sustained throughout the marketing year.

Bullish Sentiment

1. Export sales remain above last year: Weekly soybean sales of 1.456 MMT were 16.63% higher than the corresponding week last year, indicating continued export demand.
2. Strong Chinese purchasing: China bought 873,900 MT in the latest reporting week, representing a substantial share of reported US soybean sales.
3. Algerian demand: Algeria purchased 132,000 MT, providing additional international demand.
4. Soybean meal resilience: Meal futures showed mixed trading, with some contracts recording gains of up to $2.50.
5. Potentially supportive USDA surprise: If the upcoming production estimate falls below market expectations, soybean prices could find support.

Bearish Sentiment

1. Three-week low in export sales: Weekly soybean sales declined to their lowest level in three weeks, suggesting some moderation in new purchasing activity.
2. Higher yield expectations: Analysts expect US soybean yields to rise by 0.4 bushel per acre to 53.5 bpa.
3. Potential production increase: Expected production of 4.596 billion bushels would add 34 million bushels to the previous estimate if realised.
4. Lower Chinese import estimate: The 110 MMT attaché forecast is below the official USDA projection of 115 MMT, raising questions about future demand.
5. Soybean oil weakness: Oil futures fell between 94 and 132 points, weighing on the wider soybean complex.
6. Cash market pressure: Nearby cash soybeans declined 14 cents to $11.24, reflecting the weakness across futures markets.

Soybean Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching

The near-term soybean outlook is likely to remain heavily influenced by Tuesday’s USDA Crop Production report.

The expected increase in yield and production creates a bearish risk for prices. If USDA confirms a larger crop, the market could face additional supply pressure, particularly if export sales continue to ease.

However, the export market remains an important source of support. Weekly sales are still above the same period last year, and China’s substantial purchase demonstrates that international buyers continue to source US soybeans.

The key question is whether export demand can absorb a potentially larger domestic crop.

A production figure below expectations, combined with continued strong Chinese buying, could help stabilise prices. Conversely, a higher-than-expected yield and production estimate, alongside weaker export demand, could extend the current decline.

US Soybean Supply Outlook

The upcoming USDA report could materially influence expectations for US soybean availability.

Analysts are currently forecasting a yield of 53.5 bushels per acre and production of 4.596 billion bushels. These estimates imply a potential increase of 34 million bushels from the previous production figure.

If confirmed, the larger crop would increase available supply and potentially place greater pressure on domestic cash prices.

The market will also be monitoring whether the additional production is matched by stronger export demand and domestic soybean processing activity.

Global Soybean Demand Outlook

China remains central to the global soybean demand outlook.

The latest weekly export sales report showed Chinese purchases of 873,900 MT, but the GAIN report’s 110 MMT import estimate for 2026/27 is below the official USDA forecast of 115 MMT.

This difference creates uncertainty around the scale of Chinese demand for the remainder of the marketing year.

Other buyers, including Algeria, are contributing to US export sales, but the market will need sustained purchasing activity to offset the potential impact of a larger domestic crop.

Soybean meal and soybean oil demand will also remain important, with the latest figures showing meal sales within expectations and oil sales at a relatively modest 1,523 MT.

Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions

Soybeans enter the next trading sessions under pressure, with traders positioning ahead of Tuesday’s USDA Crop Production report.

The main bearish concern is the possibility of higher US yields and production. A forecast increase to 4.596 billion bushels would add to available supplies and could make it more difficult for prices to recover without stronger export demand.

The main supportive factor remains international buying, particularly from China. Weekly sales are still above last year’s level, while soybean meal futures have shown some resilience despite weakness in soybean oil.

The USDA report will be critical in determining the next directional move. A larger crop could extend selling pressure, while a smaller-than-expected production estimate may encourage short covering and a recovery in futures.

For now, the balance of risks remains cautious, with production expectations and Chinese import demand likely to determine whether soybean prices stabilise or move lower.

Today Markets Analysis

The soybean market is approaching an important fundamental turning point. Export demand remains relatively strong compared with last year, but the latest sales figure has fallen to a three-week low, while expectations of higher US production are creating additional uncertainty.

China’s purchasing activity provides near-term support, although the lower 110 MMT import estimate from the agricultural attaché introduces a potential longer-term demand concern.

Tuesday’s USDA report will be the main market focus. Traders will be assessing whether the expected increase in yield and production is confirmed and whether export demand can absorb the additional supply.

Until those figures are released, soybean futures may remain sensitive to changes in production expectations, export sales and movements across the soybean meal and oil markets.

Currency Hedger View

For international soybean traders, agricultural processors, feed manufacturers and food businesses, US dollar movements can materially affect the cost of purchasing US-origin commodities.

A stronger US dollar increases the local-currency cost of importing soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil for overseas buyers. A weaker dollar can reduce the cost of US agricultural imports and improve the competitiveness of US exports.

Businesses purchasing soybeans in US dollars should consider both commodity-price exposure and foreign-exchange exposure. Even when the underlying soybean price remains unchanged, currency movements can alter the final landed cost.

Currency Hedger provides deliverable foreign exchange services, international payments and currency hedging solutions to help businesses manage these risks.

Manage your currency exposure:

• Open a Currency Hedger account
• Visit Currency Hedger

Disclaimer

This market analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading recommendations or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument or commodity. Agricultural futures and derivatives trading involve significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Commodity prices can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and seek independent professional advice before making financial or trading decisions.

Register a Revolut Business Account