The Brazilian real strengthened past 5.37 per US dollar to over one month highs as the latest domestic price and labor data reinforced the central bank’s restrictive stance, outweighing persistent US dollar strength. Headline inflation slowed to 4.26% in December from 4.46% in November, the lowest since August 2024 and slightly below expectations, while core measures continued to signal firm services price pressures that justify maintaining tight monetary conditions. At the same time, record low unemployment underscored labor market resilience despite elevated real borrowing costs, supporting domestic demand and policy credibility. With the Selic rate held at 15% and 10 year yields still in double digits, Brazil remains one of the most attractive carry destinations among emerging markets, even as the US dollar stayed supported by resilient US activity and reduced expectations for near term Fed easing.

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