Soybean Futures Rally as January Contracts Gain Nearly 38 Cents for the Week and China Buying Supports Demand

US soybean futures finished Friday sharply higher, with contracts advancing between 9½ and 16 cents as the November contract expired. January 2027 soybeans gained 12½ cents to settle at $12.31½ per bushel, taking its weekly advance to an impressive 37¾ cents.

The wider soybean complex also strengthened. Soymeal futures added $3 to $4.40, with December meal gaining $10.60 over the week, while soybean oil advanced 14 to 39 points and December oil finished the week 151 points higher.

Export demand provided additional support, with USDA reporting fresh private sales to China, Vietnam and unknown destinations. However, the latest weekly export sales figure fell to a four-week low, while traders now turn their attention to Monday’s NOPA crush report and developments across South American planting and production.

Market Snapshot

Friday’s Soybean Market Close

Soybean futures posted strong gains across the board on Friday as the November contract expired and buying interest extended into the deferred contracts.

November 2026 soybeans settled at $12.43, up 16 cents, while January 2027 advanced 12½ cents to $12.31½. March 2027 gained 12¼ cents to close at $12.37¼, and November 2027 finished at $11.87¼, up 11¼ cents.

The cash market also strengthened. The CmdtyView national average cash soybean price increased 13¾ cents to $11.74, while new-crop cash values gained 10 cents to $11.18¾.

The January contract’s 37¾-cent weekly advance highlights the strength of the recent recovery and provides a constructive starting point for the coming trading week.

USDA Reports Fresh Private Export Sales

USDA reported private export sales of 334,000 tonnes of soybeans for the 2026/27 marketing year.

The transactions included:

• 134,000 tonnes sold to China.
• 120,000 tonnes sold to Vietnam.
• 100,000 tonnes sold to unknown destinations.

The sales provide a positive demand signal, particularly with China accounting for a significant share of international soybean buying.

The latest announcements will be watched alongside the weekly export figures to assess whether US export demand can maintain its recent momentum.

Weekly Export Sales Fall to Four-Week Low

The delayed USDA Export Sales report showed total 2026/27 soybean sales of 1.155 million tonnes for the week ending November 5.

This was a four-week low, although sales remained 155.96% above the same week last year.

China was the largest buyer, accounting for 689,200 tonnes, while Spain purchased 198,000 tonnes.

Forward bookings for the 2027/28 marketing year were limited to just 11,200 tonnes.

The figures present a mixed demand picture. The year-on-year improvement remains substantial, but the decline to a four-week low suggests that traders will want to see continued buying activity before assuming the recent export strength is accelerating.

Soymeal and Soybean Oil Extend Weekly Gains

The wider soybean complex also finished Friday higher.

Soymeal futures gained between $3 and $4.40, with December meal recording a weekly increase of $10.60.

Soybean oil advanced between 14 and 39 points during Friday’s session, while December soybean oil finished the week 151 points higher.

USDA reported soybean meal sales of 360,944 tonnes, within the estimated range of 250,000 to 450,000 tonnes.

Soybean oil sales were considerably weaker at 1,694 tonnes, compared with expectations ranging from zero to 10,000 tonnes.

The stronger weekly performance in meal and oil provides broader support to the soybean complex, although the difference in export sales highlights varying demand conditions across the products.

NOPA October Crush Report in Focus

The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) will release its updated October crush data on Monday.

Traders are looking for member soybean crush to reach approximately 225.42 million bushels, with estimates ranging from 214 million to 236 million bushels.

The report will provide an important indication of domestic soybean processing activity and demand for raw beans.

A stronger-than-expected crush figure could reinforce demand expectations and provide further support to soybean futures, while a weaker result may temper the recent optimism.

Brazil Soybean Production Estimate Remains at 181.6 Million Tonnes

Brazil’s agricultural agency CONAB left its soybean production estimate unchanged at 181.6 million tonnes.

The unchanged forecast indicates that the agency has maintained its previous assessment of Brazil’s production potential.

Brazil remains a major influence on the global soybean supply outlook. Its production performance will be particularly important as the South American growing season progresses and traders assess the potential scale of export competition for US supplies.

Argentina Planting Advances Ahead of Average Pace

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated that Argentina’s soybean crop was 17.8% planted, comfortably ahead of the average pace of 13.6% and also above last year’s progress.

The faster planting pace is an important early-season development for the South American supply outlook.

If planting continues to progress ahead of average, attention will shift towards crop establishment, weather conditions and the potential impact on final production.

Bullish Sentiment

1. Strong weekly soybean performance: January 2027 futures gained 37¾ cents over the week.
2. Fresh Chinese buying: USDA confirmed a private sale of 134,000 tonnes to China, alongside additional sales to Vietnam and unknown destinations.
3. Higher year-on-year export sales: Weekly soybean sales were 155.96% above the same week last year.
4. Stronger cash market: Nearby cash soybeans advanced 13¾ cents to $11.74.
5. Soymeal and soybean oil strength: Both products recorded positive weekly performances, supporting the wider complex.
6. NOPA crush expectations: Traders are anticipating October processing of approximately 225.42 million bushels.

Bearish Sentiment

1. Four-week low in weekly sales: Soybean export sales declined to 1.155 MMT.
2. Limited forward bookings: 2027/28 soybean sales totalled only 11,200 tonnes.
3. Large Brazilian production outlook: CONAB maintains its estimate at 181.6 MMT.
4. Faster Argentine planting: Planting is progressing at 17.8%, ahead of the average pace of 13.6%.
5. Weak soybean oil sales: Export sales of 1,694 tonnes were modest, despite positive futures performance.

Soybean Price Forecast – What Traders Are Watching Next Week

The coming week will be important in determining whether the strong weekly recovery can continue.

The main developments to monitor include:

• Monday’s NOPA crush report: Whether October processing meets or exceeds the expected 225.42 million bushels.
• Chinese export demand: Whether additional private sales and weekly commitments confirm sustained buying interest.
• USDA export sales: Whether weekly volumes recover from the recent four-week low.
• Brazilian production: Whether CONAB maintains its 181.6-million-tonne estimate.
• Argentine planting progress: Whether the crop continues to advance ahead of average.
• Soymeal and soybean oil: Whether strength across the products continues to support soybean futures.
• January futures: Whether the contract can build on its weekly gain of 37¾ cents.

Supply Outlook

The South American production outlook remains a key factor for global soybean availability.

Brazil’s estimate remains at 181.6 million tonnes, while Argentina’s planting progress is ahead of its average pace. These developments suggest that the potential for substantial South American supplies remains an important consideration for the market.

For now, the latest data does not indicate a change in Brazil’s production forecast. Traders will be watching subsequent crop assessments and Argentine planting developments for further direction.

Demand Outlook

US export demand remains a significant source of support, with weekly sales substantially higher than the same period last year and fresh private purchases reported from China and Vietnam.

However, the decline to a four-week low means that demand momentum still requires confirmation.

Domestic processing will also be important. Monday’s NOPA report should provide a clearer indication of the strength of US soybean crushing activity, while meal and oil performance will continue to influence the wider complex.

Soybean Market Outlook for the Week Ahead

Soybeans enter the new week with strong momentum following Friday’s gains and January 2027 futures’ 37¾-cent advance over the week.

The latest private export sales to China, Vietnam and unknown destinations provide an encouraging demand signal. The cash market also strengthened, while soymeal and soybean oil recorded positive weekly performances.

However, the market faces important tests. Weekly export sales fell to a four-week low, Brazil’s production estimate remains at 181.6 million tonnes, and Argentine planting is progressing ahead of average. These factors could limit further gains if South American crop prospects remain favourable and US export demand loses momentum.

Monday’s NOPA crush report is likely to be the first major focus of the new week. A strong October processing figure could reinforce domestic demand and support the recent rally. Traders will also be watching fresh Chinese buying and the next USDA export sales figures for confirmation that international demand remains firm.

For now, the soybean complex has a constructive short-term outlook, but continued strength will depend on sustained export demand, domestic crush activity and the evolving South American crop outlook.

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Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational and market commentary purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Commodity prices are subject to volatility, and readers should conduct their own research before making trading or investment decisions.

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