ING’s Chris Turner notes that Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has successfully dampened expectations for further tightening, with priced hikes falling sharply alongside lower Oil prices. Despite this, Sterling has held up relatively well, but Turner argues the stronger Dollar narrative should limit GBP/USD near 1.3500 and keep EUR/GBP supported around the 0.8610/20 area.

BoE rhetoric cools rate expectations

“It seems Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has done a good job of quelling rate hike expectations this year.”

“At one point, the market was pricing in over 80bp of BoE tightening this year, and now we just have 33bp priced.”

“In a speech on Friday, Governor Bailey said the BoE could look through temporary above-target inflation, as long as second-round effects did not emerge.”

“The removal of an aggressive BoE tightening cycle has not heavily weighed on sterling.”

“Yet the stronger dollar story should keep a lid on GBP/USD near 1.3500, and EUR/GBP support looks solid at 0.8610/20.”

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