TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek note that Gold has lagged the broader commodity basket, especially Oil and base metals, as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran persist without a deal. They argue that tight Energy markets will keep macro headwinds in place for precious metals, with CTA (Commodity Trading Advisors) positioning in Gold likely to stay broadly stable unless key price triggers are reached.

Macro risks limit precious metals

“Still no deal. Precious metals rallied late last week on headlines suggesting an imminent MoU or deal between the US and Iran.”

“Gold is now underperforming the broader commodity basket, particularly oil and base metals, where supply risks remain elevated.”

“Energy markets are likely to remain tight and supported at higher prices even under a potential deal.”

“This suggests the macro headwinds that have weighed on the precious metals complex will remain in place.”

“For CTAs, positioning is now expected to remain relatively unchanged unless we see a large uptape toward $4750/oz or a downtape toward $4480/oz this week.”

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