Cocoa futures rose above $3,800 per tonne, hitting the highest level since February amid growing supply risks. While weather conditions in West Africa, particularly in Ivory Coast and Ghana, have recently improved, supporting short-term output and allowing for a gradual rebuilding of global stocks, the outlook remains uncertain. Irregular rainfall during the key mid-crop season continues to pose risks in top producer Ivory Coast, especially if dry spells persist and affect yields and bean quality in the latter stages of the harvest. Moreover, fertilizer shortages and the rising likelihood of the El Niño phenomenon are expected to constrain 2026/27 production, with farmers in Ivory Coast already reporting difficulties securing inputs amid cash constraints. Reflecting this, StoneX has lowered its global cocoa surplus forecasts for both 2025/26 and 2026/27, signaling tighter supply conditions. On the demand side, conditions remain weak, although showing early signs of stabilization.

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