Copper surged to a fresh record high on the LME amid ongoing concerns over tightening supplies, with tariff policy uncertainty and stockpiling intensifying the squeeze on available metal. Prices touched $13,000/t for the first time during Monday’s trading, ING’s commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Tariff risks and stockpiling drive Copper to $13,000

“Copper’s rally continues to be fuelled by mine supply disruptions and distortions to trade flows amid US President Trump’s tariffs. Copper surged 42% in 2025 in its best year since 2009, making it the best performer of the six industrial metals on the LME.”

“The risk of reinstated tariffs, with a potential 15% tariff increase under review in June 2026, continues to support the arbitrage trade, as traders ramping up shipments of the metal to the US in recent weeks. Until there’s clarity on the tariff front, tariff risk will keep ex-US supply tight and global prices elevated. The downside risk to Copper is a reversal of flows to the US if the refined metal is again exempt from tariffs, which could push inventory into global markets.”

“Meanwhile, the start of a strike at the Mantoverde mine in Chile has added to concerns about Copper supply. Low inventories across major exchanges leave little room to absorb further supply shocks. At current rates, the Mantoverde mine accounts for around 0.5% of global mined Copper. The cash-to-three-month spread in London remains in backwardation, pointing to near-term tightness.”

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