Economic Calendar – A Batch of PMI reports will move attention away from bonds?

Recent sessions have been marked by stress surrounding the rising cost of servicing global debt. A rapid rebound in US yields—despite announcements of accelerated bond buybacks—underscored that the market’s patience with public finances is running out, with investors expecting real structural changes rather than financial engineering. Declines on Wall Street have stabilized somewhat, and today’s wave of macro data will attempt to shift focus away from the spotlight on bonds. Following inflation data from Japan and UK retail sales, the main event remains a series of flash Manufacturing and Services PMI reports across major economies.

Key Releases from the Asian Session & Morning:

• Japan: July CPI inflation rose to 1.9% y/y (previously 1.6%), while core CPI settled at 1.8% y/y, matching market forecasts. August’s preliminary Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 55.1 pts (from 54.5 pts), signaling strong health in the manufacturing sector.
• New Zealand: The July trade balance disappointed sharply, revealing a deep deficit of -NZD 1,949 million (against an expected surplus of NZD 320 million). The preliminary Services PMI fell in August to 52.9 pts (from 53.6 pts), while Manufacturing PMI held steady at 52.0 pts.
• United Kingdom: Retail sales came in below forecasts, reversing sharply after the previous session’s very strong reading. On a monthly basis, sales dropped by -0.5% (consensus: -0.3%, previous: +1.0%), while year-over-year growth slowed to 1.6% (consensus: 2.3%, previous: 4.2%). However, the data had little negative impact on sterling, which continues to gain against most G10 currencies (GBP/USD: +0.1%).

Macroeconomic Calendar (all times CET):

• 08:45 France – Business Confidence Index (August). Consensus: 100 | Previous: 101
• 09:00 Poland – BIEC Welfare Index (August). Previous: 93.6
• 09:15 France – Manufacturing PMI (August) (Flash). Consensus: 49.9 | Previous: 49.8
• 09:15 France – Services PMI (August) (Flash). Consensus: 49.7 | Previous: 49.6
• 09:30 Germany – Manufacturing PMI (August) (Flash). Consensus: 52.0 | Previous: 52.2
• 09:30 Germany – Services PMI (August) (Flash). Consensus: 50.2 | Previous: 49.8
• 09:30 Poland – Business Climate Index (August)
• 10:00 Eurozone – Manufacturing PMI (August) (Flash). Consensus: 51.9 | Previous: 51.9
• 10:00 Eurozone – Services PMI (August) (Flash). Consensus: 51.5 | Previous: 51.7
• 10:30 United Kingdom – Manufacturing PMI (August) (Flash). Consensus: 51.6 | Previous: 51.9
• 10:30 United Kingdom – Services PMI (August) (Flash). Consensus: 51.9 | Previous: 52.1
• 15:45 USA – Manufacturing PMI (August) (Flash). Consensus: 53.9 | Previous: 53.9
• 15:45 USA – Services PMI (August) (Flash). Consensus: 54.0 | Previous: 54.6
• 19:00 USA – Baker Hughes Rig Count. Consensus: 456 | Previous: 455

3 Markets to Watch Today:

• EUR/USD (FX) – Investors face a marathon of flash PMI indicators from both the Eurozone and the US. Morning readings from France (09:15), Germany (09:30), and the broader Eurozone (10:00) will go head-to-head this afternoon with data from the US economy (15:45). Any divergence in economic activity will set the trajectory for the eurodollar heading into the weekend.
• GBP/USD (FX) – Sterling remains under the immediate influence of UK retail sales data. Further volatility will be driven at 10:30 by preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI readings. Any deterioration in sentiment across the UK services sector could weigh on sterling’s valuation before the weekend.
• Crude Oil / WTI (Commodities) – Commodity prices will react to the comprehensive wave of PMI indices highlighting actual manufacturing activity across major economies. An additional catalyst late in the session will be the weekly Baker Hughes US rig count report at 19:00 (consensus: 456).

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