• EUR/CAD’s upside remains limited as the commodity-linked CAD receives support from higher oil prices.
• WTI eases intraday but remains elevated on Middle East supply concerns.
• Policymakers flagged inflation upside and growth downside risks, boosting bets on ECB rate hikes this year.

EUR/CAD rebounds after opening with a gap lower, trading near 1.5830 during the Asian session on Monday. However, gains remain limited as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) draws support from rising oil prices, reflecting Canada’s position as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price trims intraday gains but stays elevated around $97.80 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude oil prices continue to be underpinned by supply concerns amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

US President Donald Trump has reportedly issued Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face potential strikes on its energy infrastructure. In response, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned it would fully shut the strait if the US proceeds. Separately, reports suggest Washington is weighing a possible ground operation to seize Iran’s Kharg Island, a key oil export hub.

On the monetary policy front, the European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting last week, citing that the conflict in Iran has made the outlook “significantly more uncertain.” Policymakers highlighted “upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth,” leading traders to increase bets on potential ECB rate hikes later this year. ECB officials are due to speak later on Monday, and any hawkish signals could provide additional support to the Euro against its major counterparts.

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