The euro held steady at $1.152 in subdued trading, amid escalating uncertainty over the prolonged Iran conflict and rising oil prices, while stronger-than-expected US jobs data last week further diminished hopes of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. US President Trump threatened Iran with severe consequences if it fails to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday, though US intelligence suggests compliance is unlikely. Reports also indicate negotiations for a 45-day truce between the US, Iran, and regional mediators, potentially easing the conflict. Crude prices remained near multi-year highs, fueling inflation concerns and prompting investors to rule out any Fed rate cuts this year. In Europe, market expectations have shifted dramatically, with investors now anticipating three interest rate hikes in 2026, a stark contrast to pre-conflict forecasts, which had leaned toward no hikes and even speculation about potential monetary easing.

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