Euro: Upside bias targets 1.1590 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang highlights that EUR/USD surged to 1.1585, leaving the Euro (EUR) with a firmer tone against the US Dollar (USD). Intraday, the pair could extend gains toward 1.1590, though 1.1610 is seen as strong resistance. Over 1–3 weeks, EUR/USD is expected to trade with an upside bias while holding above 1.1525, with 1.1610 a key hurdle.

Euro retains constructive short term tone

“24-HOUR VIEW: While we expected EUR to “trade in a range” last Friday, we pointed out that “the slightly firmer underlying tone suggests it is likely to trade within a higher range of 1.1515/1.1550.” EUR subsequently dipped to 1.1524, but it surged during the NY session, reaching a high of 1.1585. The rapid rise appears to be running ahead of itself, but as long as 1.1545 (minor support is at 1.1555) is not breached, EUR could rise to 1.1590. Based on the prevailing momentum, a sustained rise above this level appears unlikely. The major resistance at 1.1610 is unlikely to come under threat.”

“1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We revised our EUR view from conditional positive to neutral last Thursday (13 Aug, spot at 1.1525), indicating that EUR “appears to have entered a range-trading phase, between 1.1480 and 1.1580.” On Friday, EUR broke slightly above 1.1580 with a high of 1.1585. EUR closed 0.36% higher at 1.1569. While we would have preferred a more decisive close above 1.1580, the price action suggests that EUR is likely to trade with an upside bias from here. Currently, it is unclear whether EUR has sufficient momentum to reach the major resistance at 1.1610. On the downside, a break below 1.1525 would indicate that EUR is likely to continue range-trading.”

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