The U.S. dollar continues to strengthen today, with the EURUSD pair down nearly 0.3%. On March 21, several Federal Reserve (Fed) members — Christopher Waller, John Williams, and Austan Goolsbee — shared their views on the U.S. economy, inflation, tariffs, and monetary policy. Here is the complete breakdown of their comments.

Christopher Waller (Fed)

• In my opinion, the slower pace of balance sheet runoff set to begin in June 2024 remains the right decision.
• Even with a slower pace of asset reductions, a clear plan of action is still necessary. At this week’s meeting, I preferred to maintain the current pace of balance sheet reduction.
• Slowing or halting asset runoff will be appropriate once we get closer to a sufficient level of reserves.

John Williams (Fed)

• I closely monitor fiscal policy and its impact on both the economy and monetary policy.
• More transparent communication is a powerful and effective tool.
• The 2% inflation target is not up for discussion during the policy review process.
• The neutral interest rate is a helpful reference but should not guide monthly decisions.
• Assessing the impact of tariffs largely depends on the specific details.
• It’s crucial to consider the long-term effects of changes in government policy.
• I am monitoring and collecting data on how government policy changes affect the economy.
• The Fed must remain very focused on data right now.
• Monetary policy is well positioned to achieve the Fed’s goals.
• Economic data is sending mixed signals.
• The economy started the year on solid footing.
• The labor market entered the year better balanced.
• Data suggests the public believes near-term inflation pressures will ease.
• Slowing the pace of balance sheet reduction was a natural step for the central bank.
• The disinflation process has been uneven.
• Many different economic scenarios are possible right now.
• Current interest rate levels are appropriate.
• There is currently a high level of uncertainty in the economy and in policymaking.
• Today’s moderately restrictive monetary policy is fully justified.
• I expect economic growth to slow in part due to lower immigration.

Austan Goolsbee (Fed)

• The evidence on how sentiment affects economic activity is mixed, but contacts from the Midwest report that confidence is influencing their decisions.
• Uncertainty could impact corporate investment plans and weaken the economy.
• An economic slowdown may justify rate cuts, but if inflation rises beyond the impact of tariffs or exceeds expectations, the Fed would have to revise its outlook.
• Current hard data does not reflect 1970s-style stagflation, but it is concerning when both inflation and unemployment are rising.
• Tariffs raise prices and reduce output — a stagflationary impulse.
• Responding to stagflation depends on how it affects inflation and the labor market.
• There is no universal response to stagflation — much depends on expectations.
• There is nothing more uncomfortable than a stagflationary environment.
• If long-term inflation expectations begin to rise, the Fed will have to act.
• The Fed’s commitment to maintaining 2% inflation is rock solid.
• Beyond tariffs, the Fed must also consider upcoming tax cuts and other factors.
• The longer the Fed waits, the greater the risk that rate cuts will need to come later and more aggressively.
• During periods of uncertainty, it’s important to gather as much data as possible.
• I still believe the economy is resilient, and if inflation continues to fall, interest rates will be lower in 12–18 months.
• We must be cautious with the term “transitory” — in this case, it depends on whether tariffs apply to intermediate goods, trigger retaliation, and how they pass through to consumers.
• The larger and more supply-shock-like the tariffs are, the harder they’ll be for the Fed to look through.
• Imports make up only 11% of GDP, so one-time tariffs that don’t provoke retaliation are more likely to be transitory.
• Before deciding how to respond to tariffs, the Fed needs to understand their duration, potential for retaliation, and impact on prices.
• Unemployment and inflation reflect progress toward the Fed’s dual mandate.
• Macroeconomic data continues to show strength in the economy.
• Markets want information quickly, but that’s not realistic right now.
• Current conditions may be a shock to the economy, depending on how long they persist.
• Businesses are anxious and holding back capital expenditures due to tariff uncertainty.
• Among business contacts, there is a clear shift toward caution and delaying investment spending.
• In times of high uncertainty, we must wait for more clarity before making significant moves.

لا تشكل المعلومات الواردة في هذه الصفحة مشورة مالية، ولا تأخذ في الاعتبار مستوى فهمك أو أهدافك الاستثمارية أو وضعك المالي أو أي احتياجات محددة أخرى. جميع المعلومات المقدمة، بما في ذلك الآراء وأبحاث السوق والنتائج الحسابية والتحليلات الفنية المنشورة على الموقع الإلكتروني أو المرسلة إليك بوسائل أخرى، تُقدم لأغراض إعلامية فقط ولا ينبغي بأي حال من الأحوال تفسيرها على أنها عرض أو دعوة لإجراء معاملة في أي أداة مالية، كما لا ينبغي تفسير المعلومات المقدمة على أنها مشورة ذات طبيعة قانونية أو مالية تستند إليها أي قرارات استثمارية تتخذها، بل يجب أن تستند حصريًّا إلى مستوى فهمك، أو أهدافك الاستثمارية، أو وضعك المالي، أو احتياجاتك المحددة الأخرى؛ وأي قرار بالتصرف بناءً على المعلومات المنشورة على الموقع الإلكتروني أو المرسلة إليك بوسائل أخرى يكون على مسؤوليتك الخاصة تمامًا. إذا كنت في شك أو غير متأكد من فهمك لمنتج أو أداة أو خدمة أو معاملة معينة، فيجب عليك طلب المشورة المهنية أو القانونية قبل التداول. ينطوي الاستثمار في عقود الفروقات (CFDs) على مستوى عالٍ من المخاطر، حيث إنها منتجات تعتمد على الرافعة المالية، وغالبًا ما تؤدي التقلبات الطفيفة في السوق إلى تقلبات أكبر بكثير في قيمة استثمارك، وقد يعمل ذلك ضدك أو لصالحك. يرجى التأكد من فهمك الكامل للمخاطر التي ينطوي عليها ذلك، مع مراعاة أهدافك الاستثمارية ومستوى خبرتك، قبل التداول، وطلب المشورة المستقلة إذا لزم الأمر.

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