The IMF raised its global growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.1% this year, and warned that major risks are building. The upgrade reflects resilient activity, strong labour markets and heavy investment in new technologies, especially artificial intelligence. However, the IMF cautioned that these same forces could become sources of instability. Rapid AI-driven investment, particularly in North America and Asia, is supporting growth and equity markets, but if productivity gains fail to materialise, it could trigger sharp market corrections and weaken household wealth. Trade and geopolitical risks also remain elevated. While the impact of past tariffs is expected to fade, new disputes or a shift toward protectionism could hurt corporate profits and keep inflation pressures alive. Regionally, the fund expects solid growth in the US (2.6% in 2026), modest expansion in the Euro Area (1.3%), and stronger momentum in China (4.5%), underscoring an uneven but still resilient global outlook.

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