Heating oil futures pared earlier gains to around $4.40 per gallon on Monday, as traders weighed reports of renewed ceasefire efforts in the Middle East against a fresh ultimatum from President Donald Trump on Iran. Reports indicated that the US, Iran, and regional mediators were negotiating a potential 45-day ceasefire, although the chances of even a partial deal within the next 48 hours remained low. At the same time, Iran said Iraq would be exempt from Strait curbs, potentially boosting oil flows, while SOMO confirmed that Iraqi shipments are unrestricted and can be loaded. Meanwhile, President Trump warned on social media that Iran would face severe consequences if it fails to reopen the passage, including possible strikes on key infrastructure such as power plants and bridges. Elsewhere, OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 206,000 bpd in May, though closed Strait routes and damaged infrastructure may limit how much supply reaches global markets.

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