S&P 500 — US Large Cap Index
FTSE 100 — UK Blue Chips
Euro Stoxx 50 — Eurozone Leaders
DAX 40 — German Equities
CAC 40 — French Market Index
Nikkei 225 — Japan Benchmark
Hang Seng — Hong Kong Index
Shanghai Composite — China Mainland
ASX 200 — Australian Market
TSX Composite — Canada Index
Nifty 50 — India Large Cap
STI Index — Singapore Market
KOSPI — South Korea Index
Bovespa — Brazil Equities
JSE Top 40 — South Africa Index
IPC Index — Mexico Market
MUFG’s Michael Wan expects USD/INR to grind lower over the next 3–6 months towards 94.00, before rebounding to 96.00 in the next calendar year. The bank links this trajectory to stronger Dollar inflows from RBI’s FX measures, tempered by IPO-related FDI outflows and limited scope for sharp Indian Rupee strength.
Rupee path shaped by flows
“From an FX perspective, we forecast USD/INR grinding lower over the next 3-6 months towards the 94.00 handle, before rebounding towards 96.00 next calendar year.”
“Net-net, the key takeaway from an FX perspective is that sharp INR strength sounds unlikely.”
“We now raise our forecast for inflows from RBI’s FX measures to US$87bn from US$60bn previously, with the bulk of the flows concentrated in the September quarter.”
“Nonetheless, with IPO announcements picking up and with that a likely rise in FDI repatriation outflows, we think this will be an important offset to stronger Dollar inflows.”
“Net-net, we are forecasting USD/INR to move lower towards 94.00 over the next 3-6 months, before bouncing higher to the 96.00 handle next calendar year.”
