US natural gas prices are experiencing a significant rally, with Henry Hub breaking above $6/MMBtu, the highest level since late 2022. This surge is driven by a winter storm affecting nearly half of the US states, which is expected to increase heating demand. However, industrial demand may face challenges due to weather conditions. ING Analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report.

Surge in natural gas prices

“US natural gas prices continue to rally, with Henry Hub breaking above $6/MMBtu and trading to its highest level since late 2022. This comes as a winter storm hits the US, with nearly half of all states declaring emergencies.”

“Despite supply and demand concerns, US gas storage was very comfortable heading into this winter storm. The latest storage data from the EIA shows that US gas storage was up 4.8% year-on-year and 6.1% above the 5-year average as of 16 January.”

“The speculative short in the US gas market has intensified the price move seen over the last week. The latest positioning data shows speculators still held a net short of 77,014 lots in Henry Hub as of last Tuesday.”

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