ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey say the Oil market has stabilised after a volatile week driven by concerns over Persian Gulf disruptions and the expiry of the ICE Brent Jun-26 contract. They note that President Trump’s Hormuz shipping plan and an OPEC+ June supply increase are unlikely to fully offset ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

Oil steadies as traders assess Hormuz

“It was a volatile week in the oil market amid growing concerns about ongoing disruptions to oil flows from the Persian Gulf and the expiration of the ICE Brent Jun-26 contract on Thursday. The market is steadier at the start of the new trading week, despite continued noise around developments in the Persian Gulf.”

“Trump also announced plans to guide commercial ships out of the Persian Gulf and through the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement saw a brief sell-off in oil prices, but the market has since pared these losses. The market does not seem convinced by the plan, which is called “Project Freedom.””

“Over the weekend, OPEC+ announced a 188k b/d supply increase for June. However, this increase is unlikely to be realised, given that 55% of it is expected to come from Persian Gulf producers. This won’t happen amid ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.”

“The latest positioning data shows that speculators increased their net long in ICE Brent by 13,862 lots over the last reporting week to 383,205 lots as of last Tuesday. The move was dominated by fresh longs entering the market.”

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