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ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note that Oil prices, including Brent and WTI, have dropped below $100 as US President Trump signalled a possible end to the war with Iran. They highlight geopolitical developments around the Strait of Hormuz, changing US inventory data, and sharply lower European gas prices driven by favourable weather and de‑escalation hopes.
Crude pressured by geopolitics and gas
“Oil prices fell after US President Trump signalled a potential end to the war with Iran. Brent slipped to below $100/bbl on Wednesday morning and WTI also traded below $100, after Trump said the US could leave Iran within two to three weeks, suggesting an agreement with Tehran may be reached but is not required for the conflict to end.”
“Even if the Strait reopens, clearing the vessel backlog would take time, with production, exports and LNG flows normalising only gradually rather than immediately.”
“In US inventory data, API figures showed crude stocks rose by 10.3mb last week, far above expectations for a 1.3mb build. Gasoline and distillate inventories fell by 3.2mb and 1.04mb, respectively, which should continue to support product cracks. The EIA report is due later today.”
“In gas markets, European prices fell sharply, with TTF down more than 7.7% on Tuesday amid favourable weather forecasts and hopes of de-escalation in the Iran conflict. Strong wind generation could weigh on gas demand for power, while weaker industrial demand and a lighter maintenance season in Norway add to the bearish tone. EU gas storage levels have fallen to 28% as of 30 March, well below the five-year average of 41%, prompting the Energy Commissioner to urge early injections to avoid a late‑season supply crunch.”
