TD Securities analysts expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) Summary of Deliberations to reiterate a dovish tone, emphasizing Canada’s softer domestic backdrop and recent disinflation. They note that more excess supply and less broad-based inflation should give policymakers flexibility on rates, with markets watching how the Bank assesses inflation risks from higher Oil prices.

BoC seen reinforcing dovish narrative

“We look for the Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations to maintain the more dovish tone from the March policy meeting by keeping an emphasis on the softer domestic backdrop and recent disinflationary progress, which should give the Bank more flexibility to look through stronger headline inflation over the near-term.”

“The minutes should maintain the emphasis on heightened uncertainty while noting there is more excess supply than projected in the Bank’s forecasts from January and that inflation pressures are less broad-based after the recent deceleration in CPI-trim/median.”

“We will be particularly focused on any discussion of risks to the near term rate path, and how the Bank will be evaluating the breadth and persistence of inflation pressures resulting from higher oil prices.”

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