TD Securities analysts expect US ISM Services to soften in March as geopolitical uncertainty from Iran weighs on sentiment. They forecast the index to fall to 54.2, reversing February’s gain, with most components slowing and employment slipping back into contraction. Supplier delivery times could provide upside risk due to supply chain disruptions.

Service sector momentum set to cool

“Survey data this week should continue to reflect Iran-related uncertainty, led by softer ISM services.”

“While ISM manufacturing surprised to the upside, comments pointed to worsening sentiment amid geopolitical risks.”

“We expect March ISM services to decline to 54.2, reversing its February increase.”

“Most components are likely to slow, and we expect employment to dip back into contraction.”

“There is upside risk from supplier deliveries due to the Iran conflict’s supply chain impacts—as seen in ISM manufacturing.”

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