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Malaysian palm oil futures hovered above MYR 4,950 per tonne, extending recent gains as firmer edible oil prices on Dalian markets and higher crude oil prices lifted sentiment amid heightened concerns over a prolonged supply disruption from the Middle East. Rising El Niño risks added a bullish factor, with drier conditions threatening Southeast Asian production. Output in top grower Indonesia is projected to fall 2.9% yoy in 2027. Demand prospects also improved in India, where refiners imported record volumes of soyoil and the most palm oil in six months ahead of festivals. However, gains were capped by a weaker ringgit and a lack of direction from Chicago markets, which were closed for a public holiday. Meanwhile, ample supply remained a headwind, with Malaysian inventories at a five-month high in July. Weak exports added pressure, as cargo surveyors noted August shipments fell 6.5–14.9% from July. Traders now brace for monthly data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board later this week.
