Soybean prices are holding relatively steady as fresh Chinese buying provides a measure of support, while the latest US export data points to a significant slowdown in broader international demand. The market is also monitoring the pace of the US harvest, with slower field progress tightening nearby supplies for crushers and supporting soybean meal values.

November 2026 soybeans are around $13.17½ per bushel, while January 2027 futures are near $13.32 and March 2027 around $13.39¾. Nearby cash soybeans are approximately $12.59.

The soybean complex remains divided. Fresh Chinese purchases provide a constructive demand signal, but total US soybean export sales have fallen to a 12-week low, while soybean meal demand is showing a more mixed picture.

Market Snapshot

Current Soybean Price Action

Soybean futures are showing limited movement, with November 2026 beans around $13.17½, January 2027 near $13.32 and March 2027 around $13.39¾.

Nearby cash soybeans are holding around $12.59, while soybean meal is gaining support from tighter nearby availability as the US harvest gets off to a slower start.

Soybean oil is weaker, creating a mixed signal across the crush complex.

The market is therefore balancing a supportive physical market against disappointing export demand.

China Buying Provides an Important Demand Signal

USDA has reported a private sale of 120,000 MT of 2026/27 soybeans to China, providing a fresh indication that Chinese buyers continue to source US beans despite broader uncertainty surrounding US-China trade.

China also accounted for 311,800 MT of the latest weekly soybean purchases, making it the largest buyer in the report.

These purchases are important because China remains one of the most influential participants in the global soybean market.

However, the market needs to see whether Chinese buying accelerates beyond isolated transactions and translates into a sustained increase in US export commitments.

US Soybean Export Sales Fall to a 12-Week Low

The latest export data provides a clear bearish signal.

US soybean sales for the relevant week totalled just 582,432 MT, significantly below the expected 1.5–2.0 MMT range.

The figure represents a 12-week low and is 19.6% below the comparable week last year.

China accounted for 311,800 MT, while Japan purchased 66,000 MT and the Netherlands bought 59,700 MT.

The combination of fresh Chinese buying and weak total sales suggests that demand is still present but not broad enough to generate a strong overall export momentum signal.

Slower Harvest Tightens Nearby Supplies

The slower start to the US soybean harvest is creating tighter nearby availability for crushers and supporting soybean meal.

This is an important development because the soybean market is not being driven exclusively by export demand. Domestic processors are also competing for available beans, particularly where harvest deliveries are slower than expected.

Tighter nearby supplies could support basis levels and crush margins if the harvest remains delayed.

However, as harvest activity accelerates, the availability of new-crop beans could increase rapidly and potentially reduce some of the current tightness.

Soybean Meal Demand Remains Close to Expectations

Soybean meal sales for the current marketing year reached 60,667 MT, while 2026/27 sales totalled 245,984 MT.

The 2026/27 figure is slightly below the expected 250,000–375,000 MT range.

Nevertheless, tighter nearby bean availability is helping support meal values, particularly in the front month.

The next phase of the meal market will depend on whether stronger physical demand can offset the effects of increased soybean availability as harvest progresses.

Soybean Oil Provides a Mixed Signal

Soybean oil sales remain relatively limited, with reported sales of 1,631 MT for 2025/26 and just 86 MT for 2026/27.

That compares with expectations ranging from net reductions of 2,000 MT to net sales of 6,500 MT.

The weaker oil demand signal limits the amount of support coming from the broader soybean crush complex.

Bullish Sentiment

1. Fresh Chinese buying: A new 120,000 MT sale to China confirms continued demand for US soybeans.
2. China remains the largest buyer: China purchased 311,800 MT in the latest report, accounting for more than half of total weekly sales.
3. Slower harvest tightens nearby supplies: Delayed harvest activity is limiting immediate availability for crushers.
4. Soybean meal remains supported: Tighter nearby bean supplies are supporting meal availability and pricing.
5. US-China trade truce extended: A reported two-month extension reduces the immediate risk of a sharp deterioration in trade conditions.
6. Cash prices remain firm: Nearby cash beans around $12.59 are holding relatively stable despite weak overall export sales.

Bearish Sentiment

1. Export sales significantly miss expectations: The latest 582,432 MT is far below the 1.5–2.0 MMT expected range.
2. Sales fall to a 12-week low: The latest figure signals a substantial slowdown in overall US export demand.
3. Year-over-year sales are weaker: Weekly sales are 19.6% below the comparable period last year.
4. Soybean oil demand is limited: New-crop oil sales remain very small, reducing support from the crush complex.
5. Harvest acceleration could loosen supply: As field activity increases, additional new-crop beans could reduce the current tightness facing crushers.
6. Trade uncertainty remains: Although the truce is being extended, the absence of new agricultural trade announcements leaves longer-term China demand uncertain.

Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching

Soybeans remain caught between a supportive nearby physical market and weaker export demand.

The key question is whether Chinese purchases can accelerate enough to offset the broader slowdown in US export sales.

A continuation of direct Chinese buying, combined with a slower harvest and firm domestic crush demand, could keep prices supported around current levels.

Conversely, if harvest activity accelerates while export sales remain well below expectations, the additional supply could increase pressure on futures.

The $13.17½ area in November 2026 soybeans remains an important near-term reference. Sustained buying above this region would keep the market focused on demand and supply tightness, while continued weakness could expose prices to further downside.

Supply Outlook

The immediate supply picture is being influenced by the pace of the US harvest.

A slower start is temporarily restricting supplies available to crushers, helping support soybean meal and nearby cash values.

However, this situation can change quickly if favourable weather accelerates fieldwork. Increased harvest deliveries would improve physical availability and could reduce the premium currently being attached to nearby beans.

Demand Outlook

Soybean demand is increasingly divided between China, the broader export market and domestic crushing.

China’s 311,800 MT of purchases and the separate 120,000 MT sale provide evidence of continued Chinese demand.

However, total weekly sales of only 582,432 MT show that demand outside those purchases remains less convincing.

Domestic crushing provides another source of demand, particularly while nearby supplies remain tight.

Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions

Soybeans are likely to remain sensitive to the balance between Chinese buying, US harvest progress and export demand.

The next major signal will be whether Chinese purchases continue at a meaningful pace. Additional sales could help counter the weakness in total export commitments.

At the same time, traders will monitor harvest progress closely. Faster field activity could ease nearby supply tightness and increase pressure on futures, while continued delays could support cash and meal markets.

The soybean complex therefore remains finely balanced: China is providing important demand, but overall US export sales remain significantly weaker than expected.

Currency Hedger View

Soybeans are traded globally in US dollars, making currency movements an important component of the final cost for international buyers.

A stronger US dollar can increase the local-currency cost of US soybeans and potentially reduce demand, while a weaker dollar can improve US export competitiveness.

For agricultural importers, processors and feed businesses exposed to USD purchases, managing the currency component alongside soybean-price exposure can improve visibility over future costs.

Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure through FX solutions, forward requirements and market analysis.

Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets

Soybeans are currently being pulled in two directions. Fresh Chinese buying is providing a clear demand signal, while total US export sales have fallen to a 12-week low and remain significantly below expectations.

The slower US harvest is adding another supportive element by tightening nearby supplies for crushers and supporting soybean meal. However, this support could diminish quickly if harvest activity accelerates.

The key issue for the coming sessions is whether Chinese buying develops into sustained demand or remains concentrated in individual purchases. At the same time, traders will be watching harvest progress for evidence that physical supply is becoming more readily available.

For now, the soybean market remains supported by Chinese demand and nearby supply tightness, but the weak overall export-sales picture limits the strength of the bullish case.

Louis Roche – Today Markets

Register a Revolut Business Account